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1) Lots of chatter about the "end of the office" as we know it. I have my @Gladwell 10,000 hours thinking about corporate workplace, employee commutes, and traffic, so I've got some thoughts:
1) Lots of chatter about the "end of the office" as we know it. I have my @Gladwell 10,000 hours thinking about corporate workplace, employee commutes, and traffic, so I've got some thoughts:
2) No question, COVID has massively disrupted office space, commutes, hiring, employee onboarding, etc in the short term. Mature tech firms and startups have been remote friendly for years, so the transition was less disruptive.
3) The next layer of workplaces (banks, insurance, biotech, professional services, telecoms, education, etc) have seen a rockier transition (home setup, system security, IT, communication platforms, monitoring).
WFH is sort of working, but it's not ideal.
WFH is sort of working, but it's not ideal.
4) The @Twitter and @Shopify 'default remote' moves are outliers in tech, let alone the broader workforce. WFH is just not possible for many industries (construction, manufacturing, science labs, real estate, military). It's further complicated by child care and in person tasks.
5) Let's dig into the numbers. Before COVID, roughly 4-7% of US workers were teleworkers while upwards of 75% of the US drove to work alone.
6) In DC, for example, the most bike/walk friendly city in the US, 60% of commuters still drove to work alone. Data shows @wmata (DC Metro) moved 626k people per day in 2019, but trains were just 19% of the people commuting. Sadly, many of those may resort to driving alone.
7) I've seen estimates from 20-40% of people will work from home in the "post-COVID" workplace (whenever that is). That may be true this summer and fall, but I think we'll be closer to 5-15% in the "post-vaccine" workplace environment, which is a good thing.
8) The real story? The real boom I see will be in active modes, particularly walking, biking, bikeshare, and E-bikes. It was already starting to happen in the EU before COVID.
Personal biking is having a moment, which is GREAT for everyone. Watch this space closely. Better bike infrastructure will make the bike boom go wild as casual riders feel safe and secure to bike every day https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html
9) Every city it seems has capitalized on this event to rightfully reclaim streets for people to walk, bike, exercise, or expand restaurant seating. Seattle, Tampa, DC, NYC, Baltimore in the US are following similar moves by Milan and Vilnius. https://ggwash.org/view/77725/the-reopendc-report-recommends-reallocating-street-space-for-walking-restaurants-and-buses
10) If you think the appeal of WFH is already starting to wear off, just wait until the rest of the world goes back to the office. We might be looking at a whiplash of hiring and a second wave resurgence back into the office -- albeit differently.
11) The "hub and spoke" or decentralized office theory seems most plausible. Companies will encourage employees to stagger their hours, work from home some days, and office "hoteling" at multiple, smaller locations around a city, based on the needs of the day.
12) In the end, if properly communicated, this could be a win for the companies, employees, the environment, and cities. And luckily, our talented team @TransitScreen lives and breathes employee commute management and workplace technology, so we're here to help :)
13) On the real estate supply side, my good friend @ElieFinegold made the point this week: Offices are efficient cash generating machines. Even if a big tech company left a downtown office, the asset owner won't demolish the building, it will just reduce the rent.
14) For every company with a downtown office, there are dozens more than *want to be there* but couldn't afford the high rent. If rents drop, those companies will happily swoop in and eat up the vacated space. @ElieFinegold
