Beijing’s overtly dictatorial approach drops the veil. There’s no dispute about what’s happening.

They are inviting the world to react, and they are betting the world will blink.

We must not blink. The response to China must be massive. https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/status/1263491109197615105

My short list:
1. Seize all assets in every western country belonging to any family member of any member of the CCP, yank all their visas
2. Expel the entire Chinese diplomatic delegation
3. Massive tariffs
4. President Trump visits Taiwan
5. Send a carrier thru the straits

In the event that China refuses to get the message, escalation options include:
1. Formally announcing a willingness to recognize a Hong Kong government in exile
2. Creating a refugee program for HK/Macau people
3. Seizing all assets of HSBC
4. Prohibiting wire transfers to HK

China’s current ruling parting sincerely believes the West lacks the resolve to respond to it, and that now is the right moment for China to seize its rightful place. China’s reformers disagree, and think these moves will trigger a massive western reaction.

Thus far, the hardliners have won the battle of facts: the West has been a paper tiger.

If you want to strengthen moderate elements in China, you have to establish a fact pattern favorable to them. That means run to the brink, or even over it.

It’s not brinksmanship. We should communicate that we aren’t trying to test China’s resolve: there is not a limit to our commitment to defending our interests, including the security of the first island chain. We are perfectly happy to accept consequences if Xi wants to lose.

Because right now, the odds that China could pull out a victory in ANY hard power contest are virtually nil. Even if they could get across the straits, they lack the amphibious capacity to deal with Taiwan’s defenses.

At this moment, no matter how far it goes, we will win.

As a result, we should confidently respond to China that they have to back down or we will break them down. We won’t be able to do that for much longer. We must do it now, buying space for less fascistic elements of China’s system to regain influence.

Another option would be to attempt to initiate an aerial challenge over neutral waters and intentionally shoot down a Chinese aircraft. They shot down one of ours under Bush.

The alternative of course is that we can do nothing and allow China’s campaign to establish ideological hegemony to continue unchecked, increasing the odds our children have to fight an enormous conventional war in the future which they may lose.

This is what Very Serious Experts have been claiming for decades. And the result has been that the US used kid gloves and tried not to provoke China. And the result was Xi Jinping. This theory failed. Direct confrontation is the correct approach. https://twitter.com/stevehouf/status/1263634223606435841

If someone can point me to a major geopolitical rival that was ever addressed primarily by not offending their domestic extremists I'd be much obliged but I'm not aware of many such examples.

A scenario where China becomes an isolated state with insufficient power to do anything beyond threatening regional rivals is much better than the current trajectory of "literally Nazi Germany." https://twitter.com/stevehouf/status/1263637412867121159

Like in 50 years it's reasonable that nobody will be asking "Would you kill baby Hitler?" because they'll have found a far worse villain.

Exhibit A of my "the PRC is basically Germany 1936" argument would be PRC doves getting super into Holocaust denialism.