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THREAD: On the US govt& #39;s response to the China-India boundary incidents & how India will see it.
In some ways, US is faced w/ a Catch-22:
- say nothing & Indians (esp US sceptics) say, "what kind of partner are you?"
- say something & GoI worries abt its escalatory potential 1/
In some ways, US is faced w/ a Catch-22:
- say nothing & Indians (esp US sceptics) say, "what kind of partner are you?"
- say something & GoI worries abt its escalatory potential 1/
We& #39;ve seen 2 comments thus far from Amb. Alice Wells, PDAS @State_SCA re the PRC-IN situation. One was yesterday morning, where she called China& #39;s behavior "disturbing" & representative of its broader actions (SCS) & how it uses its power 2/
https://www.news18.com/news/world/us-diplomat-says-india-china-tensions-a-reminder-of-beijings-provocative-and-disturbing-behaviour-2629397.html">https://www.news18.com/news/worl...
https://www.news18.com/news/world/us-diplomat-says-india-china-tensions-a-reminder-of-beijings-provocative-and-disturbing-behaviour-2629397.html">https://www.news18.com/news/worl...
The second (lengthier) comment from Amb. Wells came in a conversation with @RichardRVerma yday afternoon. 3/
As I& #39;ve mentioned elsewhere, these statements are likely to be welcomed as "backing" by many in the Indian public. Indeed we& #39;ve already seen some commentary calling the USG stmts as "siding with India" 4/ https://www.timesnownews.com/international/article/us-backs-india-over-border-tension-with-china-accuses-beijing-of-provocative-and-disturbing-behaviour/594898">https://www.timesnownews.com/internati...
But, however much Indian public will 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏🏽" title="Clapping hands sign (medium skin tone)" aria-label="Emoji: Clapping hands sign (medium skin tone)"> US response, the Indian govt will likely be quite uncomfortable abt it (reasons in thread).
e.g. @nitingokhale: "establishment in New Delhi is not looking at the US to weigh in on any dispute resolution w China" 5/ https://twitter.com/StratNewsGlobal/status/1263359520127873024?s=20">https://twitter.com/StratNews...
e.g. @nitingokhale: "establishment in New Delhi is not looking at the US to weigh in on any dispute resolution w China" 5/ https://twitter.com/StratNewsGlobal/status/1263359520127873024?s=20">https://twitter.com/StratNews...
So why wld GoI prefer private support but public discretion from USG re PRC-IN incidents? A few reasons... 6/
Reason 1a: India wants to de-escalate the situation w/ PRC. Hence its own restrained stmts. GoI will see USG stmts as potentially hindering this effort to deescalate. Given increased US-China tension, GoI esp doesn& #39;t want boundary issue to become a geopolitical football. 7/
Reason 1b: US stmts abt the boundary & linking it to SCS will concern GoI, even if they agree its reflective of broader PRC assertiveness. It could get the issue caught up in US-China competition, & make it harder for Beijing to take the off-ramp. 8/
Reason 2: Chinese analysts & officials hv often taken line that PRC-IN don& #39;t hv problems; they& #39;re created by US. Also, that India is acting at US behest (says this abt many - e.g. Aus - since PRC doesnt seem to give other countries much agency)
GoI wants the focus to be bilat 9/
GoI wants the focus to be bilat 9/
Reason 3: GoI& #39;s been portraying India as a major power, capable of handling its own problems & helping others with theirs. In dealing w. the situation, Delhi will want to demonstrate its ability to tackle this situation & show resolve 10/
GoI will particularly be concerned abt the timing of the remarks given that, despite their attempt to be restrained, a couple of days ago, PRC upped the ante.
Today, PRC reacted to the USG comments, saying the situation has nothing to do with the US. 11/
Today, PRC reacted to the USG comments, saying the situation has nothing to do with the US. 11/
3 caveats here to GoI preference re USG public stmts: It does not mean GoI:
- doesn& #39;t want US support & help privately
- might not change its mind abt US stmts down the line
- won& #39;t want US to hold Indian "resolve" up as an example/model after the situation has been resolved 12/
- doesn& #39;t want US support & help privately
- might not change its mind abt US stmts down the line
- won& #39;t want US to hold Indian "resolve" up as an example/model after the situation has been resolved 12/
US support doesn& #39;t hv to be public. US can - & has in the past - helped India behind-the-scenes with these incidents w/ China (more in my Doklam-era article below).
Since Doklam, the ability of US & India to cooperate has deepened thx to COMCASA etc. 13/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/09/26/the-us-and-doklam-look-beyond-rhetoric/">https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...
Since Doklam, the ability of US & India to cooperate has deepened thx to COMCASA etc. 13/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/09/26/the-us-and-doklam-look-beyond-rhetoric/">https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...
GoI discomfort w/ public USG stmts doesn& #39;t signal shying away from partnering w/ US & others more broadly. Keep in mind, Doklam might hv led to "Wuhan spirit" w/ China, but it also led to India deepening bilat, trilat, quad, minilat ties w/ US, Australia, Japan. W/ US alone.. 14/
