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Cold Start Phase-1:
° Weakening of Pakistan's Military Capability by having it engaged in prolonged internal conflict. (2006-2017) including degradation of military equipment.
° Dispersion of PakMil away from the Indian border.
° Weakening of Pakistan's Military Capability by having it engaged in prolonged internal conflict. (2006-2017) including degradation of military equipment.
° Dispersion of PakMil away from the Indian border.
° Attacking key PakMil assets, P3C, EriEye etc.
° Demoralization through attacks on GHQ, Park Lane, Budaber.
° Assasinations of political leadership to cultivate disunity. I.E Benazir's assassination by TTP.
° Assasinations of moderate Muslim ulema.
° Demoralization through attacks on GHQ, Park Lane, Budaber.
° Assasinations of political leadership to cultivate disunity. I.E Benazir's assassination by TTP.
° Assasinations of moderate Muslim ulema.
° Degradation of Pakistan's Economy.
° Internal subversion by non state actors, urban insurgency (Karachi) and insurgency in Balochistan.
° Reduction in military prep through civ-mil division cultivated by friends of Sajjan Jindal.
° Internal subversion by non state actors, urban insurgency (Karachi) and insurgency in Balochistan.
° Reduction in military prep through civ-mil division cultivated by friends of Sajjan Jindal.
° Sectarian attacks in Karachi, ethnic killings in Balochistan by Kulbhushan Network.
° Creation of new separatist movements in Sindh, Balochistan and potentially in KP.
° Subversion of Pakistan's foreign partners to deny Pakistan a support network during War.
° Creation of new separatist movements in Sindh, Balochistan and potentially in KP.
° Subversion of Pakistan's foreign partners to deny Pakistan a support network during War.
Cold Start Phase - 02:
° Draw a severely weakened (Militarily, Economically, Politically, Diplomatically) #Pakistan into a quick open tactical conflict in Kashmir to inflict defeat and use it as a token of regional hegemony.
° Neutralize Physical Link Between China & Pakistan
° Draw a severely weakened (Militarily, Economically, Politically, Diplomatically) #Pakistan into a quick open tactical conflict in Kashmir to inflict defeat and use it as a token of regional hegemony.
° Neutralize Physical Link Between China & Pakistan
° If the 1st phase of conflict fails, more fronts to be opened across IB, leading to full scale war, where India feels it has a clear advantage.
° Power projection in Sindh, Punjab, destruction of Pakistan's critical infrastructure and decapitation of ground lines of comm.
° Power projection in Sindh, Punjab, destruction of Pakistan's critical infrastructure and decapitation of ground lines of comm.
Challenges for Cold Start:
° Terrorist campaign didn't lead to state collapse.
° Pakistan successfully inflicted military defeat on armed Indian proxies in FATA, Karachi, reclaimed all lost ground.
° Pakistan Maintained nuclear deterrence.
° Pak balanced its civ-mil dynamic
° Terrorist campaign didn't lead to state collapse.
° Pakistan successfully inflicted military defeat on armed Indian proxies in FATA, Karachi, reclaimed all lost ground.
° Pakistan Maintained nuclear deterrence.
° Pak balanced its civ-mil dynamic
° CPEC, continued construction and is nearing completion.
° Pak defeated Indian proxies in Afghanistan, going to secure its rear flank.
° Increased military capability through disruptive measures like establishment of nuclear Triad.
° Pak reinstated Kashmir policy.
° Pak defeated Indian proxies in Afghanistan, going to secure its rear flank.
° Increased military capability through disruptive measures like establishment of nuclear Triad.
° Pak reinstated Kashmir policy.
Conclusion:
India worked very hard to create a conducive environment where it can press its military advantage. However it has a very limited window of opportunity where it'd be able to exploit Pakistan's weaknesses and fault lines. At the same time, it can't afford a War.
India worked very hard to create a conducive environment where it can press its military advantage. However it has a very limited window of opportunity where it'd be able to exploit Pakistan's weaknesses and fault lines. At the same time, it can't afford a War.
India can't go to War with Pakistan until NATO forces are pending withdrawal in Afghanistan as the US requires a smooth exit strategy for which it is relying on its fledgling alliance with Pakistan. Brief engagement in Feb 2019 also proved that Pakistan is no pushover.
Any conflict with Pakistan will be drenched in blood, thousands of Indian casualties will have to be accepted and - such a conflict may not even succeed in gaining international support due to Pakistan's own geopolitical measures.
Intensified insurgency in Balochistan represents defeat on multiple fronts. Which explains why India is opting to go after soft Pakistani targets with no actual value in the larger scheme of things.
Ultimately, time is on Pakistan's side and i hope leadership uses it well.
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Ultimately, time is on Pakistan's side and i hope leadership uses it well.
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