Thanks to recent data releases from @ONS I think we can be a little clearer about the excess "non-COVID" mortality in England and Wales

1. Deaths of Care Home residents in hospital were more likely to be registered as related to COVID than those in care homes

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1/n

2. Levels of in hospital mortality in Care Home residents have not substantially increase despite increased illness and overall mortality

3. Nor do they seem to account for the displacement of in hospital mortality into the community observed by @d_spiegel and others

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2/n

4. The displaced in hospital mortality seems for likely to be in deaths at Home which remain high and less frequently attributed to COVID in death registrations

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3/n

Overall, I agree with @ChrisGiles_ and @NickStripe_ONS that:

a. Individuals dying with / from COVID but not being registered as such

b. Care pathways are disrupted, particularly from home, where individuals are not attending hospital

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4/n

Rightly there has been a strong focus on Care Homes but I think we now need to evaluate age / causes of death at Home

There are notably differences in historic data in these environments that can be explored to inform strategies to rebuild confidence in hospital attendance

ENDS