Here are 3 things to be mindful of when comparing different states (or countries), esp when thinking about different reopening decisions.
1) There's a *long* lag between actions and their effects. Today's numbers are not due to yesterday's decisions. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
1) There's a *long* lag between actions and their effects. Today's numbers are not due to yesterday's decisions. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
2) No single factor explains big geographical differences. Many factors are at work, including...
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
3) Bad luck. Which become especially important when cases are low.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
Bottom line: It's going to be very easy to jump to the wrong conclusions. Hopefully this piece can offer a guide to making sense of the patchwork. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
Also do read this piece by my wonderful colleague @amandamull which delves into the first point--the long data lag. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/is-reopening-safe-after-covid-19-we-wont-know-for-weeks/611743/