We& #39;ve seen hiring *stabilize* at roughly 35% below year-ago levels in the US, since mid/late April. Unlike other high frequency data, we don& #39;t see a meaningful pickup. If one is happening, it& #39;s very small so far. 2/n
We do see some industries where hiring, while still depressed relative to pre-COVID, has definitely picked up in the past few weeks: education, wellness/fitness, public administration, public safety, and agriculture. 3/n
Education and wellness/fitness are pretty intriguing. We haven& #39;t examined them in depth yet, but I wonder if these were previously-brick& #39;n& #39;mortar sectors that were able to "retool" for virtual/online operations relatively quickly. 4/n
Most other sectors are basically depressed and stable in our data, just like the overall hiring rate. One exception that& #39;s still deteriorating is oil & energy, which might be still be reeling from the energy price collapse.
To wrap up this thread... I think we& #39;re seeing the embryonic signs of an uneven recovery. As the economy moves from the current stabilization toward recovery, we& #39;ll probably see some sectors normalizing fairly quickly and others staying depressed for a long time. 6/6
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