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If trail and ultrarunning were a stock you could buy and sell, I'd be backing up the truck and loading up. It's a sport perfectly set up to thrive post COVID-19.
Here's why I'm so bullish (a short thread)
Here's why I'm so bullish (a short thread)
1-Races are hurting. Many will take years to recoup their losses. Sadly, some will go out of business entirely (this is already happening). This is the 'buy low' side of the equation.
It will also create reduced supply.
It will also create reduced supply.
2-Even w/ restrictions, some outdoor activity like walking is 
. See data from @Garmin @GarminFitness here
https://www.garmin.com/en-US/blog/general/the-effect-of-the-global-pandemic-on-active-lifestyles/
Also a quick look at trail use across the US and is it generally up, trails are more crowded
This could be a catalyst aka the 80's running boom
. See data from @Garmin @GarminFitness herehttps://www.garmin.com/en-US/blog/general/the-effect-of-the-global-pandemic-on-active-lifestyles/
Also a quick look at trail use across the US and is it generally up, trails are more crowded
This could be a catalyst aka the 80's running boom
3- Other mass participatory events will not be able to boot up as fast post pandemic. Large field sizes will be problematic from a regulatory and social aspect.
See @SpartanRace https://obstacleracingmedia.com/ocr-news/spartan-race-is-back-june-13-14-jacksonville-florida/
See @SpartanRace https://obstacleracingmedia.com/ocr-news/spartan-race-is-back-june-13-14-jacksonville-florida/
4- This puts even more demand on smaller events that occur over a larger area.
Enter trail/ultrarunning running, which is well positioned to capture the pent up demand.
Enter trail/ultrarunning running, which is well positioned to capture the pent up demand.
5-Trail/ultrarunning inherently contains more conducive physical distancing, fewer spectators and more malleable infrastructure. Plus, it is generally more aesthetic than road running. That combination will draw new participants into the sport.
6- Now take the pre-pandemic trends where participation in running has generally been flat (or trending down) and trail running growing at double digits.
https://runningusa.org/RUSA/News/2019/Running_USA_Releases_2019_U.S._Running_Trends_Report.aspx
https://ultrarunning.com/featured/the-rise-of-ultrarunning/
https://runningusa.org/RUSA/News/2019/Running_USA_Releases_2019_U.S._Running_Trends_Report.aspx
https://ultrarunning.com/featured/the-rise-of-ultrarunning/
7-whenever the endemic category (running or marathon running) is flat and a subcategory (trail/ultrarunning) is growing, that is a more robust sign of strength for the subcategory as it is not being propped up by macro trends.
8- Larger companies like Lifetime fitness @IRONMANtri & @SpartanRace recognized this trend pre-pandemic w/ moves into the trail/ultrarunning space.
https://endurancebusiness.com/2018/industry-news/ultra-trail-australia-acquired-by-ironman/
If anything, the failure of smaller races will create more of a vacuum for better capitalized race orgs
https://endurancebusiness.com/2018/industry-news/ultra-trail-australia-acquired-by-ironman/
If anything, the failure of smaller races will create more of a vacuum for better capitalized race orgs
9- see my conversation here with @ITRA_trail President Bob Crowley where we discuss this aspect. Consolidation during economic downturns happens in many industries. Trail running will be one of them- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/itra-future-ultrarunning-bob-crowley-koopcast-episode/id1489494447?i=1000473929149
10-Back to my bullishness. The during-pandemic trend of more people running, a post-pandemic inevitability of large road races being problematic combined with the pre-pandemic trends for running/trail running all point towards a robust trail running future.
11- The stock price of trail/ultrarunning will eventually rise. 
It will just take time. I'd buy all the trail running stock available right now.
It will just take time. I'd buy all the trail running stock available right now.
12-This does not deny the short term pain felt by individuals, race directors and small businesses in the space. They will still suffer for many months to come. I feel for them and as a community, we should continue to support them.
https://www.runninginsight.com/endurance-sports-coalition-looking-for-relief
https://www.runninginsight.com/endurance-sports-coalition-looking-for-relief
Summary-
1-Trail running is in a bad place right now
2-A consolidation of event management is likely
3-Trail running will bounce back
4- It will be better than ever, just give it time
End.
1-Trail running is in a bad place right now
2-A consolidation of event management is likely
3-Trail running will bounce back
4- It will be better than ever, just give it time
End.
