When we talk about The @ProjectLincoln effect we’re pointing out the erosion of Republican support in Trumps base https://link.medium.com/EjAdQghBC6 

New polling out today shows withering support for @SenMcSallyAZ - 13 points underwater and likely an anchor pulling Trump down to potentially lose a critical state. Arizona will likely play an outsized role in the 2020 campaign.

McSallys collapse is due in large part to erosion among college educated Republicans & decline among voters 65 and older. These trends mirror national polling and highlight why @ProjectLincoln ads are moving numbers in key states that will determine the Presidency

‘Trust’ & ‘confidence’ in Trump are moving backwards for him & unlike white evangelical voters - college educated and older voters are less driven by articles of faith. They’re responding to the gross mismanagement of the pandemic.

While college educated voters have always had a tenuous relationship with Trump, until recently older voters have remained a steady stubborn bloc of support for him.
Enter COVID-19.

Trump will need near universal support from both college educated Republicans (specifically women) and seniors performing at 2016 levels or higher. He doesn’t have either right now.

Republican to Republican messaging is critical to affirm Trump weary voters that their mistrust in him and lack of confidence in his competence is more widespread than they are hearing.

The gap between college educated & non-college educated Republicans is widening in most polling and it’s a significant part of why Trump is panicking. Blaming China will only go so far with GOP voters seeing their lives & wallets impacted by incompetence.

The @ProjectLincoln effect diminishes Republican support for Trump and it occurs as Republicans effectively communicate with other Republicans, support levels for Trump drop and the divide between traditional conservatism & Trumpism grows larger.