Today, DoD’s Lead IG ( @DoD_IG) released an important report that provides a candid assessment of US's Afghan mission between January 1-March 31, a period that covers the signing of the US-Taliban agreement. Some highlights below. THREAD.

Link to report: https://media.defense.gov/2020/May/19/2002302407/-1/-1/1/LEAD%20INSPECTOR%20GENERAL%20FOR%20OPERATION%20FREEDOM'S%20SENTINEL.PDF

Taliban violence remains high. “…both during the reduction in violence and after the signing of the agreement, the Taliban continued attacks against…ANDSF [Afghan forces].” Meanwhile, throughout the quarter, “U.S. military operations remained focused on defending the ANDSF.” /2

Insider attacks (both green-on-blue and Taliban infiltration) rose this quarter. " @USFOR_A reported that there were 17 insider attacks that targeted the ANDSF, killing 48 ANDSF members.” In Feb, one insider attack resulted in the death of two U.S. personnel. /3

As per the report, “the deadliest year on record for insider attacks was 2019, with 257 ANDSF casualties (172 killed and 85 wounded).

FWIW. The main cited source for the insider attack figures listed by @DoD_IG is my @WarInstitute report. Link here: https://mwi.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Dress-Like-Allies-Kill-Like-Enemies.pdf /4

ISIS-K is around but weakened. " @DefenseIntel assessed that as of mid-March, approximately 300 to 2,500 ISIS-K members remained in Afghanistan," with only 50-100 in Nangarhar.” Joint ops continued to target the group, incl. in Kunar, where the group is trying to consolidate. /5

Meanwhile, @DefenseIntel assesses that “... ISIS-K continues to pose a threat to U.S., coalition, and Afghan forces.” There has been no change in the US CT strategy, but "ISIS-K clandestine cells were continuing to plan and conduct operations against U.S. and Afghan forces.” /6

On peace, Russia, which has welcomed the signing of the US-Taliban agreement, it has ..."also offered to discuss sending military assistance to a future interim government [in Afghanistan]," as per @DefenseIntel response to @DoD_IG request for information. /7

"Moscow has denied accusations of supplying weapons to the Taliban, though it does acknowledge providing political support to the group. Russia also supports delisting the Taliban from UN sanctions," as per @DefenseIntel. /8

China has, meanwhile, “…maintained contact with the Taliban and the Afghan government throughout the peace process,” citing press reporting. China seems mainly concerned with "Uighur militants" and with protecting its "economic and infrastructure investments" as part of BRI. /9

Similarly, as per @DefenseIntel while encouraging the Taliban to engage in peace talks, "...Pakistan refrained from applying coercive pressure that would seriously threaten its relationship with the Afghan Taliban to dissuade the group from conducting further violence." /10

While no secret, but as per @DefenseIntel, "Pakistan likely views increased Taliban influence in Afghanistan as supporting its overall objectives and will seek to influence intra-Afghan peace talks in a direction favorable to Pakistan." /11

"The @DefenseIntel also told the @DoD_IG that Pakistan continues to harbor the Taliban and associated militant groups in Pakistan, such as the Haqqani Network, which maintains the ability to conduct attacks against Afghan interests." /12

Iran, as per the report, which has opposed the US-Taliban deal based on its March 1 statement, "...seeks to manipulate any future Afghan government by trying to influence elections and politics and by endeavoring to secure a central role in Taliban reconciliation talks." /13

As per @DefenseIntel, "fewer than 3,000 Fatemiyoun fighters have returned to Afghanistan." As of early 2020, "returned Fatemiyoun fighters had not significantly
affected the security environment in Afghanistan." But Iran is able "to re-contact fighters." /14

The report states that the US-funded 18,000 Afghan Local Police (ALP) will be dissolved once the funding cycle ends in September. @moiafghanistan is working on “post-dissolution employment options for ALP members and for recovering ALP weapons and equipment.” /15

Decommissioned ALP members are likely to be recruited into ANA, ANA-TF and ANP ranks. As per the @DoD_IG, ANA-TF units are effective, especially as a hold force to maintain control in districts after they are liberated, but the expansion of ANA-TF has been temporarily paused. /16

“ANA-TF expansion will resume once ANA leadership resolves integration challenges as well as recruitment shortfalls that have previously affected the ANA-TF,” as per DoD officials. /17