Thread by @pmdfoster, Er...suffice to say @DavidGHFrostletter to @MichelBarnierlanded like a lead balloon in Brussels. [...]

Er...suffice to say @DavidGHFrost
letter to @MichelBarnier
landed like a lead balloon in Brussels.

Mr Frost finds it "perplexing" that the EU will not give the UK a bunch of special treatment that will reduce costs of #brexit 1/

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

I am looking forward to @MichelBarnier reply... I imagine that it might say something about rules of origin, mutual recognition of professional qualifications, level playing fields etc. /2

The point about the UK & #39;ask& #39; is that - as @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines will explain is that, in aggregate, they amount to more than & #39;Canada& #39; or & #39;Japan& #39;. /3

So take just one EG - & #39;rules of origin& #39; which determins which products are sufficiently & #39;local& #39; in content to get zero or low tariff access...see Anna here on UK & #39;ask& #39; to include & #39;content& #39; from other EU FTA partners. ie Triangulation /4 https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1262723059317956609">https://twitter.com/AnnaJerze...

https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1262723059317956609

So UK gets to protected integrated supply chains - ie keep lots of the benefits of current arrangements, arguing that& #39;s in & #39;interests& #39; of both sides. But that& #39;s a big & #39;ask& #39; from EU - it would set precedent and anyway, EU sees change to take UK market share /5

That& #39;s just one example, but across the piece - NZ Vet deals, Ro-Ro traffic smoothing, recognising professional qualifications - there is lots of goods stuff the UK wants that is & #39;more than Japan and Canada.

And as @SamuelMarcLowe keeps saying - quite rightly! /6

But there are no free lunches, so round and round we go, back we got to the EU argument of the & #39;size and proximity& #39; of the UK and the need to be sure of a & #39;level playing field& #39; with the UK.

This is a negotiation, so the EU aint giving its cards away /7

There clearly are landing zones here, but they can& #39;t be accessed by the UK saying (disingenuously) they & #39;only want& #39; CETA or EU-Japan when in aggregate the want more than that - which itself speaks to the reality that UK can see the costs of erecting barriers to trade. /8

So which is it? The full buccaneer - Global Britain ruling the waves (increasingly turbulent now with Trump and #COVID19) or a close trading relationship with the the market that takes 43% of UK exports? After four years we still seem to be in the & #39;cake zone& #39; /9

What& #39;s amazing is how history of these negotiations repeats itself - red lines, long stand-offs etc - and then an & #39;autumn crunch& #39; in which the UK acquaints itself with the costs of conflating the trade agenda with the sovereignty agenda. Round and round we go. /10

FWIW I think there can be a deal, there should be a deal, suspect there probably will be a deal (though that is becoming an increasingly minority position) but I still don& #39;t believe that the EU side can be bluffed and bullied into it. The asymmetries are too big. We& #39;ll see. ENDS

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