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We have a new pre-print out @socarxiv on the pressing need to conduct frequent mobile phone surveys to monitor excess deaths due to the #COVID19 pandemic in low income and lower-middle income countries. Short thread below 1/n https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/4bu3q/
Lots of contributors-> @BrunoMasquelier, @tomtom_m, @visseho09, @AneFisker, @dennisfeehan, @LeontineAlkema, @blqueiroz, @IanTimaeus, @aashishg_, @Patrick_Gerland, @DanzhenYou, @jennylind2000 along w/ folks from @icddr_b, @aphrc, @MEIRU_MALAWI, @InedFr, @PSG_LSHTM & @PennPSC 2/n
Starting point is that monitoring excess mortality, rather than counting COVID deaths in hospitals, is a better measure to track the effects of the pandemic. @J_CD_T & @MPIDRnews have both released datasets on this covering mostly high-income countries 3/n https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker
But, the data required to calculate excess mortality is deficient in most low income and lower-middle income countries is deficient, as detailed here: https://twitter.com/helleringer143/status/1261867969992425474?s=20 4/n
There is a lot of work going to strengthen the registration systems that would allow monitoring excess mortality in real-time in LLMICs, for example http://www.apai-crvs.org/ or https://www.idrc.ca/en/initiative/centre-excellence-civil-registration-and-vital-statistics-systems 5/n
This @UNICEFData site also has a tremendous overview of registration systems in Africa https://data.unicef.org/crvs/ . In the long run, this is the crucial work, making sure every death is registered and counted 6/n
In the short term however, there is a need for an interim source of data that will allow local health authorities to monitor the impact of COVID, identify most affected areas and groups, and evaluate their response, based on data-driven measures of excess mortality 7/n
In-person surveys like the DHS or MICS that usually fill the data gaps related to mortality have unfortunately been suspended for safety reasons. They are also not sufficiently frequent to help guide pandemic response https://mics.unicef.org/news_entries/157/COVID-19-PANDEMIC-AND-IMPLEMENTATION-OF-MULTIPLE-INDICATOR-CLUSTER-SURVEYS-(MICS)
So in this paper, we argue that mobile phone surveys are a safe and viable alternative during the course of the pandemic. There have been few examples of mobile surveys focused on mortality during an epidemic. One example-> https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0004899 9/n
Amid the rapid (dare i say, exponential?) expansion of mobile phone survey programs in LLMICs (eg http://surveys.worldbank.org/covid-19 ), mortality has been omitted as a topic of data collection. This is a rather large gap in the middle of a pandemic 10/n
This may constrain the ability of local health authorities and their partners to respond to the pandemic, and to document needs and successes. So let's end with a call to mobilize interest and energy around such data collection! 11/11
