THREAD
1/ As the court considers whether to grant DOJ’s motion to dismiss charges against Michael Flynn for lying to the FBI in Jan 2017, one aspect that is often overlooked is WHY Flynn lied

2/ A jury would be instructed that while you can never read another’s mind, you may draw reasonable inferences based on totality of the circumstances. Lies may be evidence of consciousness of guilt, that is, a person lies because he believes the truth will expose wrongdoing.

3/ So here are the facts we know. The lies related to Flynn’s conversation with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak in late Dec 2016. Flynn lied to the FBI even though he must have known that Kislyak’s calls were likely being recorded by US IC. Transcripts have not been released.

4/ Flynn’s lies were denying that he discussed two topics with Kislyak: (1) sanctions imposed by Obama Admin in retaliation for election interference and (2) an upcoming UN vote on Israeli settlements. Flynn later admitted asking Russia not to escalate in responding to sanctions.

5/ We know from Robert Mueller’s report, Vol. I, pp 170-171, that contemporaneously with these calls, Flynn was speaking with members of the Trump Transition Team at Mar-A-Lago, including KT McFarland, Reince Priebus and Steve Bannon, to get advice about what to say to Kislyak.

6/ According to the Mueller Report, Vol. I, p 171, McFarland said that she thought that someone "may have mentioned" Flynn's calls with Kislyak to Trump himself.

7/ On Feb 14, 2017, after a meeting in the Oval Office, Trump asked FBI Director James Comey to stay alone with him, and then asked Comey to “let go” of the Flynn investigation

8/ So what is a reasonable inference as to why Flynn lied to the FBI?

9/ Flynn knew that discussing the sanctions with Russia undermined the foreign policy of the United States and would be seen as an act of disloyalty. The truth would have had severe political costs for the Trump Administration.

10/ The truth could also have exposed him, the transition team members, and Trump to criminal charges. Flynn was likely unaware of exactly what statutes may have been violated, but there are several possibilities.

11/ One is the Logan Act, which prohibits private citizens from negotiating with foreign governments. DOJ has opined that a successful Logan Act prosecution would have been difficult, but a prosecution was possible and could have created a reasonable fear for Flynn at the time.

12/ Other possible crimes are acting as an agent of a foreign government (18 USC 951) or conspiracy to defraud the US by impairing, obstructing or defeating the lawful functions of the Office of Foreign Assets Controls in the administration of its sanctions program (18 USC 371)

13/ Truth would have led FBI to dig deeper into ties between Trump & Russia: Did Flynn promise something to Russia in exchange for de-escalating? Had Russia already provided something in exchange? Mueller said witnesses who lied created “identified gaps” in his report. Vol I,p 10

14/ Conclusion: Flynn lied because the truth would have been worse. It would have caused political damage, confirmed suspicious ties to Russia, and created criminal exposure for himself, the members of the Transition Team, and possibly Trump himself.

15/ Dismissing Flynn's case rewards that loyalty and guarantees his continued silence. END