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A thread about the coming changes to US urban economic geography. 1/x
For our largest cities, net outmigration is the rule. Immigration & natural increase give the illusion that domestically everyone is piling into urban living. 2/x
As young adults age, different priorities & preferences emerge. The patterns of where we live change. Nothing new about that. The NYT stories about families leaving Big City behind are an accelerated norm at best. It& #39;s not news. 3/x
What would be news is, after the economy recovers, that more & more young adults choose not to move into Big City. 4/x
To give an idea how remarkable that would be, read this NYT article from 1975: "Rural Areas& #39; Population Gains Now Outpacing Urban Regions" https://www.nytimes.com/1975/05/18/archives/rural-areas-population-gains-now-outpacing-urban-regions-rural.html">https://www.nytimes.com/1975/05/1... 5/x
"Census Bureau surveys since the 1970 Census show a surprising shift in population movement in the US. Nonmetropolitan areas are growing faster than metropolitan areas...the 1st time that has happened in the 20th century & perhaps the 1st time in the history of the Republic" 6/x
What was going on? "At the dawn of the 1970s, waves of hopeful idealists abandoned the city and headed for the country, convinced that a better life awaited" https://alumni.columbia.edu/content/we-are-gods-back-land-1970s-quest-new-america">https://alumni.columbia.edu/content/w... 7/x
It was another American wave of utopian migration & petered out almost as quickly as it started. As an aside, the movement is woven into Silicon Valley culture: https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-silicon-valley/the-complicated-legacy-of-stewart-brands-whole-earth-catalog">https://www.newyorker.com/news/lett... 8/x
I think we could see something like this return to rural, but to areas in the near-abroad of Big City, still tied to employment there. 9/x
I call it "megaregional housing markets". NYC salaries driving up real estate values in places such as Wilmington, Delaware & Northampton, Massachussetts. 10/x
"interior designer Meg Lavalette gets the best of both worlds by living & doing the majority of her work in rural upstate New York, while traveling to New York City every other week to meet with clients" https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/10/9/20885699/remote-work-from-anywhere-change-coworking-office-real-estate">https://www.vox.com/recode/20... 11/x
This migration was already well underway before the pandemic. It& #39;s not necessarily going from urban-to-rural. One might move from Tribeca to Troy, NY. 12/x
David Autor& #39;s wealth workers will follow them: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/americas-hot-new-job-being-rich-persons-servant/595774/">https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/arc... 13/x
What might that mean for Big City? That world will turn on municipal finance. 14/x
Will young adults rush in to fill the void if the subway is broken & the city doesn& #39;t pick up the trash? 15/x
Will immigrants still come? Will we let them in? Will they choose Big City? 16/x
Putting aside the secular decline of geographic mobility, how long before the economy recovers enough for people to move again in large numbers? 17/x
