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A thread about the coming changes to US urban economic geography. 1/x
For our largest cities, net outmigration is the rule. Immigration & natural increase give the illusion that domestically everyone is piling into urban living. 2/x
As young adults age, different priorities & preferences emerge. The patterns of where we live change. Nothing new about that. The NYT stories about families leaving Big City behind are an accelerated norm at best. It's not news. 3/x
What would be news is, after the economy recovers, that more & more young adults choose not to move into Big City. 4/x
To give an idea how remarkable that would be, read this NYT article from 1975: "Rural Areas' Population Gains Now Outpacing Urban Regions" https://www.nytimes.com/1975/05/18/archives/rural-areas-population-gains-now-outpacing-urban-regions-rural.html 5/x
"Census Bureau surveys since the 1970 Census show a surprising shift in population movement in the US. Nonmetropolitan areas are growing faster than metropolitan areas...the 1st time that has happened in the 20th century & perhaps the 1st time in the history of the Republic" 6/x
What was going on? "At the dawn of the 1970s, waves of hopeful idealists abandoned the city and headed for the country, convinced that a better life awaited" https://alumni.columbia.edu/content/we-are-gods-back-land-1970s-quest-new-america 7/x
It was another American wave of utopian migration & petered out almost as quickly as it started. As an aside, the movement is woven into Silicon Valley culture: https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-silicon-valley/the-complicated-legacy-of-stewart-brands-whole-earth-catalog 8/x
I think we could see something like this return to rural, but to areas in the near-abroad of Big City, still tied to employment there. 9/x
I call it "megaregional housing markets". NYC salaries driving up real estate values in places such as Wilmington, Delaware & Northampton, Massachussetts. 10/x
"interior designer Meg Lavalette gets the best of both worlds by living & doing the majority of her work in rural upstate New York, while traveling to New York City every other week to meet with clients" https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/10/9/20885699/remote-work-from-anywhere-change-coworking-office-real-estate 11/x
This migration was already well underway before the pandemic. It's not necessarily going from urban-to-rural. One might move from Tribeca to Troy, NY. 12/x
David Autor's wealth workers will follow them: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/americas-hot-new-job-being-rich-persons-servant/595774/ 13/x
What might that mean for Big City? That world will turn on municipal finance. 14/x
Will young adults rush in to fill the void if the subway is broken & the city doesn't pick up the trash? 15/x
Will immigrants still come? Will we let them in? Will they choose Big City? 16/x
Putting aside the secular decline of geographic mobility, how long before the economy recovers enough for people to move again in large numbers? 17/x
The life cycle delay of the last recession was traumatic enough. I don't know what that will mean for Big City. I do know the changes will be big. But don't call it "deurbanization". 18/18
