Thread by @NatBullard, Electric passenger vehicle sales will fall 18% in 2020, after a decade [...]

Electric passenger vehicle sales will fall 18% in 2020, after a decade of strong growth.

Internal combustion engine sales in 2020? -23%.

@BloombergNEF's 2020 Electric Vehicle Outlook is just published. 1/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

Electric Vehicle Sales to Fall 18% in 2020 but Long-term Prospects Remain Undimmed | BloombergNEF

EVs more resilient as overall car market expected to shrink by 23% in response to health and economic crisis London and New York, May 19, 2020 –

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

2/ Here's how @colinmckerrache describes it:
"Despite the name, EVO is really our outlook for all of road transport. It starts with forecasting total movement of people and goods in the future." https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

Electric Vehicle Sales to Fall 18% in 2020 but Long-term Prospects Remain Undimmed | BloombergNEF

EVs more resilient as overall car market expected to shrink by 23% in response to health and economic crisis London and New York, May 19, 2020 –

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

3/ "It then works its way down into vehicle fleet sizes, sales and drivetrain mix across passenger cars, shared mobility, commercial vehicles, buses and two/three wheelers. It then maps their impacts onto infrastructure, energy, materials, and emissions. https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

Electric Vehicle Sales to Fall 18% in 2020 but Long-term Prospects Remain Undimmed | BloombergNEF

EVs more resilient as overall car market expected to shrink by 23% in response to health and economic crisis London and New York, May 19, 2020 –

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

4/ Key findings of @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook: starting with sales

1.7 million EV sales this year. 54 million by 2040 https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

5/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook findings: vehicle models

500+ EV models available by 2022
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

6/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook findings: EV share of total passenger vehicle sales

2.7% in 2020. 58% in 2040
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

7/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook findings: electric vehicle fleet

8.5 million in 2020. 116 million in 2030
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

8/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook findings: total passenger vehicle fleet

1.2 billion in 2020. 1.3 billion in 2030
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

9/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook findings: China share of global electric vehicle sales

2025: 54%
2040: 33%
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

10/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook findings: shared mobility

16% of all kilometers traveled by road in 2040.
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

11/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook market drivers:

- Technology (Batteries keep getting better)
- Policy (gov'ts pushing market towards lower emissions)
- Economics (upfront price parity in a few years)
- Companies (electrification imperatives) https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

12/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook market drivers:

Lithium-ion battery prices, down 87% 2010-19
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

13/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook market drivers:

Policy pressure. 13 countries and 31 cities/regions have plans to phase out internal combustion engines
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

13/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook segment leaders:

Municipal buses, 2-wheelers in 2020; everything in 2030
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

14/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook implications for energy and emissions:

17.6 million barrels per day of oil demand displaced in 2040
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

15/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook implications for energy and emissions:

5.2% increase in global electricity demand in 2040
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

16/ @BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook implications for energy and emissions:

Road transport emissions still keep rising through 2033.
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

17/ EVO is a collaborative effort from a global
@BloombergNEF team: @colinmckerrache @NickRAlbanese @AI_Energy @JamesTFrith @CBC727 @siyi_mi @agrant49
@albertwycheung and many others. Well done, colleagues!

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

/end

BNEF EVO Report 2020 | BloombergNEF | Bloomberg Finance LP

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

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