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Leaked documents from the European CDC meeting of the 18th of February (a week before Italy put some cities in quarantine) show that the ECDC evaluated the risks for the population as "low" and the risk for healthcare systems as "low or moderate".
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2/ Before continuing, here is the source (in Italian: https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2020/05/19/news/coronavirus_tre_giorni_prima_del_caso_codogno_l_europa_sottovaluto_il_rischio_pandemia_-257055322/)
3/ The Danish representative seems to be the only one in the room to remark that hospital beds might become a problem.
Representatives discuss a PPE shortage but make no plan.
Representatives discuss a PPE shortage but make no plan.
4/ The ECDC decides that the testing criteria is "must have traveled to Wuhan".
The Danish representative, again, is the only one saying "it would be logical to look for the virus in severe pneumonia cases" and that we should be "ready and proactive" like Vietnam, but is ignored
The Danish representative, again, is the only one saying "it would be logical to look for the virus in severe pneumonia cases" and that we should be "ready and proactive" like Vietnam, but is ignored
5/ The representatives of Austria and Slovakia alerted of the risk of "stigmatizing" those who get tested
Spanish epidemiologist Fernando Simón alerts of the risk of frightening the population. 5 weeks later he will test positive. While still being Head of the emergency response
Spanish epidemiologist Fernando Simón alerts of the risk of frightening the population. 5 weeks later he will test positive. While still being Head of the emergency response
6/ Here is the source for tweet #5, in Spanish: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-05-18/los-guardianes-de-la-salud-europea-subestimaron-el-peligro-del-virus.html
7/ A few comments of mine:
- It's not that the people in the room are incompetent. They're competent at optimizing for a political objective, which is different from the expected objective of preventing outbreaks.
- It's not that the people in the room are incompetent. They're competent at optimizing for a political objective, which is different from the expected objective of preventing outbreaks.
8/ - Much is to be done now to fight COVID-19.
But if we want to be ready for the next epidemic, we must answer the question of why were these people chosen (no, incompetence is not the answer), what we want for our institutions, and how we will ensure that we get it.
But if we want to be ready for the next epidemic, we must answer the question of why were these people chosen (no, incompetence is not the answer), what we want for our institutions, and how we will ensure that we get it.
9/ A similar meeting http://pandemic.substack.com/p/the-2005-decision-that-made-the-2020
