County Lines after COVID: A new threat?
A THREAD/

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Since the #COVID19 lockdown began, the received wisdom reported in the media has been that the threat from county lines operated by organised crime groups (OCGs) and gangs would reduce.
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However, the picture appears to be far more complex. The gangs who operate county lines have always proven highly versatile and adaptable, and they are now embracing new tactics to protect a lucrative business.
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Big reductions in the number of children reported missing from home or care have been cited as evidence that exploitation through county lines has reduced due to the lockdown.
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On the surface this makes sense, as it seems obvious that exploitation of vulnerable children and in county lines drugs networks may be easier to disrupt at this time. However, there are several reasons that this should be treated with caution.
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In the first of a series of insights drawn from Crest’s new research project ‘County Lines and Looked After Children’ Head of Policy and expert in drugs networks @Croslandite identifies the new threats County Lines are presenting in the wake of COVID-19.
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➡️Lower volume does not necessarily mean lower vulnerability
London boroughs have reported that although the number of missing children has dropped significantly since the start of the lockdown,
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many of the most vulnerable young people are still going missing, often for longer periods of time.
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➡️The trend towards local recruitment
This means that in assessing whether children are being exploited in county lines during lockdown, we should pay as much attention to vulnerable children in the ‘county bases’ as those going missing from the ‘home bases’.
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➡️A buoyant drugs market
Whilst the missing incidents figures for North Wales show even steeper reductions than those in London, the data shows only a slight fall in recorded drugs offences, suggesting that the local drug market is still functioning.
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➡️Changes in tactics to navigate the lockdown
Police and practitioners have told us that some gangs have revived ‘old school’ tactics such as the use of user-dealers to navigate COVID-19.
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Another tactic, used by both county lines and local lines, is called ‘stacking’, whereby the drugs line will put out a ‘burst’ marketing message to their customers, telling them to be in a certain place at a certain time.
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With a cohort of young people isolated, bored and impoverished by lockdown, there is a danger that as restrictions start to lift, gangs will find a new generation of recruits for a new, professionalised local franchise model of county lines.
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Can law enforcement and protective services for children respond to rapidly evolving models of exploitation through county lines?
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@Croslandite said: “Many of the gangs exploiting children in county lines are finding opportunities in the COVID lockdown by adapting their tactics and changing their operating model.
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"There is also an opportunity for law enforcement and children’s services to combat the gangs, staying ahead of the curve - but to do so they will need the full backing of Government Ministers.”
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