Hi.
I was doing a lot of thinking about the Lions defense and how it might look in 2020 with the personnel changes [Jamie Collins, Duron Harmon, Julian Okwara in particular].
So I went back and did some rewatching and redataing.
#Thread

Firstly - this scheme is so complicated.
People are negative about Patricia but he's trying to build something great.
It's an intricate scheme all about match-ups and responsibilities.
It's not just sam/mike/will - players move and do different things snap by snap

First let's look at the LBs and alignment data over the season.
Jarrad Davis is the starting point.
He's as close as you get in this scheme to "the Mike".
He gets a lot of criticism [rightly so] for being a poor coverage player. But that's not his key responsibility

"The Mike" [I hate that term] in this defense is really not the do-it-all LB who can excel in all aspects of the game it is on many teams.
We'll go into that more in a bit

Devon Kennard is the next guy up. Although he's obviously left the team.
He was the "Sam" although that's a misleading term for what he did.
Left edge would be closer to the truth.

They spent a day 2 draft pick on Jahlani Tavai last year.
He was a bit of a hybrid inside/outside LB.

Note how similar his alignment was to Dont'a Hightower in New England.
This is no coincidence.

And then look how similar those two guys were to Raekwon MacMillan in Miami.
Again - no coincidence.

Next guy up is Christian Jones.
He actually played more outside than mike.
Which is interesting.
They gave him anew contract last year which surprised us all. But it's really for low cash.
He only counts $3m against the cap.
That's chump change in today's market.

Here's Jalen Reeves-Maybin. Ex #FFIDP sweetheart.
80% inside LB.
He's basically Jarrad Davis' backup.
he played 282 snaps with Davis out.
And 18 snaps in games Davis was healthy

So to summarise:
INSIDE: Jarrad Davis + Jalen R-M
EDGE: Devon Kennard
HYBRID: Jahlani Tavai + Christian Jones
The hybrid category is important - because they move around a lot depending on personnel and responsibility

Remember this scheme comes from the Belichick factory.
And he focuses on responsibility [Do Your Job] and situational football [what do we do right here and now to stop them?].
It's all about solving the problem right in front of you.
Not lining up where you always do and hoping

So let's look at what it looks like in practise shall we?
I picked 3 random games from the 2019 Lions season and grabbed some pics of typical fronts they use.

A 1st down against Denver.
Kennard is clearly a full-blown edge player [even if's in a 2 pt stance] on the strong side.
Tavai is the mike.
JRM is the other LB.
Tavon W and Tracy W both in the box.

Next snap.
Kennard is again the sam.
But JRM is suddenly on the weak side.
There's no safety bin the box.
There were 2 on the last snap.

A 3rd down later in the same drive.
Trey Flowers has slid inside with Austin Bryant the DE.
Romeo Okwara is the other DT.
There is no nose.
The only LB is Tavai.
Tracy Walker is back in the box in a fairly orthodox LB spot.

So from that game we saw that Tavai was playing "the mike", Kennard was "the Sam" and the others all moved around snap to snap.
Simple right?
Eh.
Not so much.

Here's a 1st down against the Vikes.
Kennard is on the right side [the weak side of the formation here] outside Flowers.
Christian Jones is guarding a slot WR on the LoS.
Jarrad Davis is the mike.
Tavon Wilson creeping into the box.

Here's later that drive.
Kennard is playing off-ball LB here next to Jarrad Davis.
A rare orthodox look for this defense.

Kennard back to his usual L edge spot.
Jarrad Davis is at Mike.
Walker and Wilson both sneaking into the box again.
Look how isolated Trey Flowers is here.
The classic 43 under look for the weakside edge.

Later in the same drive.
Christian Jones is basically he right edge spot here. In a wide 9 alignment with no TE.
Will Harris sneaking up here.

Here's Devon Kennard in his "normal" left edge spot.
Note that he's on that side even though it's the weak side of that formation.
Jarrad Davis is a blitzing mike here - but lining up on the inside shoulder of the tackle.
Okwara is the undertackle here.
Tracy Walker playing LB

OK.
Next game against WAS.
Jarrad D and Christin J playing LB.
Kennard at left edge [on the weak side of the formation - but with a wingback.
Tavon Wilson pretty much playing the overhang role.

Kennard again at L edge - on the weak side.
Christian Jones is the most central LB with Davis offset.
Tavon Wilson again sneaking up - no-one was scared of Washington hitting deep passes.
Nothing close to a nose tackle here.

Mike Daniels is the nose here.
Kennard as [mostly] always at L edge.
Jarrad Davis joined by Killebrew at LB.
With Will Harris and Tavon Wilson all on the field too.

That's just a few examples but hopefully you get the point - there is a LOT of variation snap to snap in this defense for how players are used.
It's pointless to think of the old 90s 3-LBs-in-a-row as S/M/W here.
That's just a misleading way of thinking about this defense

And although we call Devon Kennard "the Sam" that's also not really true.
Because he lines up on the left side of the line most snaps. Not according to formation strength.
Left DE is a better description of that than Sam.
In my humble opinion.

So there are some questions.
- How will they use Jamie Collins?
- How will they use Julian Okwara?
- How will they use Duron Harmon?

The LBs first:
I expect Jarrad Davis has exactly the same job as last year.
As does Jahlani Tavai.
Then Collins is an immediate upgrade to Christian Jones.
With Collins on board they can be more flexible with the same 3 LBs. And probably rely less on big nickel looks

In #FFIDP terms I don't really like any of them.
There will be big weeks of course - but I don't think any of them are likely to be top 24 LBs in 2020.
This is not a defense that drives individual LB productivity.
Because the players are asked to do lots of things snap by snap

Julian Okwara next.
They picked him 67th overall. Significant investment. I think they've got a role in mind for him.
And it's that Devon Kennard one.
Call it Sam if you like.
Call it LDE.
Doesn't matter - it's primarily playing the left edge spot on the LoS.

Playing 400-600 snaps as a rookie is achievable depending on how well he picks the role up.
It's a demanding one and he's got to be flexible.
If he can't pick it all up [he was used much less flexibly in college] then he'll lose snaps.
Expect spike weeks but much inconsistency

Which leaves Duron Harmon.
We've seen the Lions like to be flexible with safeties. They use a lot of big nickel.
But Duron Harmon has been the best-defined safety in NE. He's the specialist FS that comes in on passing downs.

The fact he's on board is good news for Will Harris.
He was a 3rd round pick last season .
He played 600+ snaps [mostly deep] but I think his game is really playing more in the box.
Replacing Tavon Wilson with Duron Harmon will allow him to do more.

And lastly here's a little guide to how I see the contenders in Detroit, NE and Miami for the spots in this defense.
To recap - I don't really like this scheme for LB individual stats.
But you should at least have a good understanding of who actually does what.

Thanks for reading everyone.
#ENDTHREAD