two confident predictions:

- no one is winning the popular vote by double digits (or even close to it)
- no one is winning more than 342 electoral votes

i see people predicting insane landslides for their guy and it's just not realistic given how polarized the country is

you might wonder why 342 specifically

that is trump's absolute best possible scenario, in which he flips mn, nv, nm, co, nh, and me-al

to get anything above that, he'd have to flip states that are too blue now like oregon or virginia

for biden, the absolute best case is 334, in which he flips mi, wi, pa, az, nc, fl, and ne-02

to get anything above that, he'd have to flip states that are too red now like ohio and iowa

and even these best-case scenarios are very difficult

to say that it's an uphill battle for trump to flip colorado or biden to flip florida would be an understatement

but they are possible