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There are two columns that frame the Open-up vs Stay quarantined debate basically in my Front vs Back row framework, although they call it differently (Overclass, protected, etc)
I wish I could agree with them, because it fits my priors, but they are not right. (1/N)
I wish I could agree with them, because it fits my priors, but they are not right. (1/N)
It isn't about Back vs Front, although there is overlap. It is mostly about 4 things, that cross economic & educational lines
Because this isn't political; this crisis is about your health & now an economic crisis that exposes financial leverage (2/N)
Because this isn't political; this crisis is about your health & now an economic crisis that exposes financial leverage (2/N)
Thing 1: Your health! Here it is about age & prior condition. Clearly anyone more at risk of dying from this is going to be less inclined to open up.
And the back row has, in aggregate, worse health, because poverty is unhealthy. So less inclined to take risks (3/N)
And the back row has, in aggregate, worse health, because poverty is unhealthy. So less inclined to take risks (3/N)
Thing 2: Finances. Most importantly how exposed are you to pause in eco activity. Or how leveraged?
There is cross mixing here also. Small biz owners are very exposed to a pause. They need steady income. Open up!
Many lower paid Government workers less so. Steady paycheck (4/N)
There is cross mixing here also. Small biz owners are very exposed to a pause. They need steady income. Open up!
Many lower paid Government workers less so. Steady paycheck (4/N)
Thing 3: Geography! Rural or Urban? Big dense city with outbreak or smaller town where you can drive everywhere?
Again. Plenty of poor back row people live in urban settings. Like lots of them. Plenty of business owners live in rural & suburban settings. Like lots of them. (5/N)
Again. Plenty of poor back row people live in urban settings. Like lots of them. Plenty of business owners live in rural & suburban settings. Like lots of them. (5/N)
Thing 4: Your own view of risk!
Science is not settled. There is disagreements among specialist on Covid, so not surprising there is disagreements among those trying to do their best to follow along at home.
2 people in same situation can come to different conclusions! (6/N)
Science is not settled. There is disagreements among specialist on Covid, so not surprising there is disagreements among those trying to do their best to follow along at home.
2 people in same situation can come to different conclusions! (6/N)
Boiling it all down, the group that you would expect to be most pro-open, is smaller town/rural/suburban small business owners who are under the age of 60 & CEOs
People who need economic activity to generate $s to pay their ongoing expenses & don't see much Covid risk (7/N)
People who need economic activity to generate $s to pay their ongoing expenses & don't see much Covid risk (7/N)
To highlight income issues. It is less about how much you have & more about how volatile income stream is.
You can be rich & leveraged & therefore "need" steady income & so want to open, or you can be poor & on fixed income & so have steady income & want to stay closed (8/N)
You can be rich & leveraged & therefore "need" steady income & so want to open, or you can be poor & on fixed income & so have steady income & want to stay closed (8/N)
If there is division it is between Entrepreneurial class (CEOs, small biz owners, street level hustlers) who want to open & "steady income live within means" class. Tenured academics, elite media figures, disability & Social security recipients, or people with rich parents (9/N)
