Some universities are deciding whether or not to go all-online in Sep/Oct. I think a better plan is to decide, now, to transform in to a blended institution that can rapidly flex the mix of face to face and online. That's no easy challenge either, but it's much more robust. 1/6

The path of Covid-19 is very uncertain. Can campus open in Sep/Oct? We can't know. There are loads of other foreseeable risks, many of which have become more likely. Given that, the smart strategy is to grow the ability to respond to changes. 2/6

This is a harder path than making a call now about what happens later. That's a strong strategy, but very brittle if it turns out you called it wrongly. And universities are famously poor at rapid change and flexibility, as anyone who's tried to change things knows well. 3/6

But look at what's been achieved over the last few months. Flexibility is possible! You already have good plans for f2f teaching, so the hardest work is building the online provision (which'd be the way to bet if you had to bet on one). There is a layer of extra work, though. 4/6

Part of that is working through what's most valuable in face to face, what's better online anyway, and what falls in between, modelling what mixes can be delivered, and how to switch. But the harder part is empowering and valuing staff. You can't flex without their buy-in. 5/6

That's not easy, with finances desperate. But it is by far the most important task. Engaged people are the best way to address this crisis. Fighting a two-front war against the virus and staff will not go well. Working together, flexibly and equitably, will go much better. 6/6

Addendum: It is not currently clear whether and in what form primary schools in England will open and how many learners will turn up a week on Monday. If you think you can know now what'll happen in universities in 4 months' time ... you're wrong.