Thread by @4st8, Last week when I teased that PA had a bellwether my plan [...]

Last week when I teased that PA had a bellwether my plan was to create a thread on the concept of 'bellwethers' and why I'm not a huge fan, but tbh I don't have the time. So here's what were doing; I'm going to lay out what I have and everyone can draw their own conclusions. 1/x

That piece of info that piqued my interest. In 2016, just two of PA's 15 largest cities voted for Donald Trump. Altoona, in traditionally conservative Blair County, and Millcreek Township outside Erie. 2/

Longtime followers know that I've done a lot of canvassing work in suburbs similar to Millcreek around Pittsburgh. Places that are overwhelmingly white, middle class and tend to be very sensitive to the national political environment. "Swingy" 3/x

With that in mind, I looked back through my data and pulled the results for Gov, Sen, and Presidential elections in Millcreek going back to 1992. 4/

Let's focus on the results from the last 7 presidential elections. Over the last two decades Millcreek voted on average around 1.14% to the right of the state. Which, IMO is pretty impressive. 5/

Millcreek is also critical for carrying Erie County. Millcreek + the City of Erie make up over 50% of the county's two party vote. So, if you're winning in Millcreek, you're winning in Erie County and in places that look a lot like Erie Co, e.g. Bethel Park, Bensalem, Swatara. 6/

The lesson: As Millcreek goes, so goes similar vote rich suburbs in Pennsylvania. (Unless Tom Ridge is on the ballot) As a bonus, a gif of the 2 party Presidential results in Erie going back to 1992. 7/

And the individual maps 8/