2/The first thing that is going to smash colleges is CUTS TO STATE FUNDING.

It& #39;s important to realize that much of this devastation already happened in the 2010s. State funding was still way down, many years into the recovery from the Great Recession!

https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/unkept-promises-state-cuts-to-higher-education-threaten-access-and">https://www.cbpp.org/research/...
3/So:

1. The Great Recession dramatically cut state funding for colleges.

2. That funding did not recover afterward.

What do you think coronavirus is going to do? Probably the same. States have a LOT of other stuff they& #39;re going to prioritize - like keeping people fed.
4/College is a great long-term investment for a state, but as the Great Recession shows, states don& #39;t tend to think long-term in a crisis. And the crisis establishes a new normal.

Maybe Biden can reverse this, with a massive federal bailout of states? Maybe...
7/Coronavirus is going to cut off the flow of international students temporarily.

The depression that follows will reduce job opportunities in the U.S., making it a less attractive place to study.

Tensions with China will reduce the flow of students from China.
10/For-profit schools were already going out of business en masse. And some private nonprofit schools were closing too. This is all before coronavirus.
11/Meanwhile, the number of white and black students enrolling in college was already falling, and the long-term rise in tuition mostly stopped at the Great Recession, indicating that demand for college was flatlining or declining before coronavirus.
13/So three factors that were ALREADY starting to hit colleges will now hit them much harder:

1. State funding cuts

2. International student decreases

3. Falling demand from domestic students

These will combine to produce a College Apocalypse.
15/Colleges will cut labor costs.

Many highly paid lecturers and non-tenured profs will be laid off. More classes will be taught by low-paid adjuncts or grad students. Administrator salaries and hiring will be cut. Tenured professorships will be less available.
16/Colleges will cut capital costs.

Fancy new dorms and other facilities will be put on hold. Research budgets will be slashed.
18/Even worse, middle-ranked state schools, which provide some of the best educational value for money and are a crucial stepping stone into the middle class for lower-income kids, may have to shutter branches.
19/The College Apocalypse will be bad for social mobility, but it will be even worse for the economies of college towns, which have tended to be America& #39;s most thriving places over the past four decades. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-16/rural-america-s-revival-begins-on-campus?sref=R8NfLgwS">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...
20/And of course, the College Apocalypse will be devastating for people dreaming of an academic career.

What was already a brutally tough and often disappointing job market will now simply become a fading dream for many, many Americans. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-04/too-many-people-dream-of-a-charmed-life-in-academia">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...
21/And I am less optimistic than @tylercowen about online education& #39;s ability to plug the gap in college funding. I don& #39;t think students will pay that much for a Zoom class with a Cal State Fullerton watermark on it.
22/In fact, I think there& #39;s only one thing that can be done: a massive federal bailout for both public and private schools.

Maybe if Biden wins a solid election victory and Mitch McConnell& #39;s power is diminished, this will happen.
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