Read on Twitter
Oh man, so many things:
On hospitalizations
1. I thought US hospitals would be more overloaded.
2. I thought hospital overload would be a bigger factor on death rate
3. I thought ventilator access would be a bigger issue. https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1261379754214649856">https://twitter.com/mckaycopp...
On hospitalizations
1. I thought US hospitals would be more overloaded.
2. I thought hospital overload would be a bigger factor on death rate
3. I thought ventilator access would be a bigger issue. https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1261379754214649856">https://twitter.com/mckaycopp...
ventilators:
4. I thought invasive ventilation would have a high death rate but still on the better side of 50% (like base rate from ICU wards in general)
5. I thought non-invasive ventilation would save more lives.
6. I encouraged my friends to work on ventilators (sorry!)
4. I thought invasive ventilation would have a high death rate but still on the better side of 50% (like base rate from ICU wards in general)
5. I thought non-invasive ventilation would save more lives.
6. I encouraged my friends to work on ventilators (sorry!)
Disease prognosis:
Up until ~ early April:
6. I thought asthma will be a large comorbidity.
7. I thought smoking would be a large comorbidity. (I& #39;m still skeptical about nicotine)
8. In general, I overemphasized the respiratory aspects despite insufficient evidence to believe it.
Up until ~ early April:
6. I thought asthma will be a large comorbidity.
7. I thought smoking would be a large comorbidity. (I& #39;m still skeptical about nicotine)
8. In general, I overemphasized the respiratory aspects despite insufficient evidence to believe it.
Personal strategy:
9. I "saw the smoke" relatively early compared to most non-professionals but didn& #39;t do much other than take personal precautions and a few small public warnings, until late Feb/early March
10. I vacillated between working on/not working on covid in Mar/Apr...
9. I "saw the smoke" relatively early compared to most non-professionals but didn& #39;t do much other than take personal precautions and a few small public warnings, until late Feb/early March
10. I vacillated between working on/not working on covid in Mar/Apr...
...which probably wasted critical time. I should& #39;ve just "shut up and committed"
11. I emphasized respectability a bit too much over getting true beliefs, especially early on. (See attached screenshot). I think there was enough evidence in late Jan that this had >5%
11. I emphasized respectability a bit too much over getting true beliefs, especially early on. (See attached screenshot). I think there was enough evidence in late Jan that this had >5%
chance of effecting my life personally in significant ways, but I think I was implicitly too worried about fearmongering to publicly commit to this.
12. I focused too much on my local area/developed countries, instead of thinking hard about which places would be most affected.
12. I focused too much on my local area/developed countries, instead of thinking hard about which places would be most affected.
Meta-forecasting.
13. I trusted @metaculus medians too much early on (Jan, Feb), even though it should& #39;ve been clear that their predictions didn& #39;t look anything like a martingale.
14. I thought the stock market was much correctly calibrated (Weak EMH).
13. I trusted @metaculus medians too much early on (Jan, Feb), even though it should& #39;ve been clear that their predictions didn& #39;t look anything like a martingale.
14. I thought the stock market was much correctly calibrated (Weak EMH).
15. I was excited when the IHME models first came out. I got skeptical of them fairly early on, but didn& #39;t commit to writing them off.
16. I treated "domain experts" as a class too homogeneously; I didn& #39;t try hard enough to identify and follow all the *right* experts.
16. I treated "domain experts" as a class too homogeneously; I didn& #39;t try hard enough to identify and follow all the *right* experts.
Lockdowns:
17. I thought something like lockdowns will happen, but underestimated the speed at which they& #39;d happen
18. I especially did not think that my local area (SF Bay) would be the first in America to do large-scale SAH.
19. I didn& #39;t think lockdowns would be lifted quickly.
17. I thought something like lockdowns will happen, but underestimated the speed at which they& #39;d happen
18. I especially did not think that my local area (SF Bay) would be the first in America to do large-scale SAH.
19. I didn& #39;t think lockdowns would be lifted quickly.
Essentially, I over-emphasized inertia bias and thought that it& #39;d be hard to get lockdowns to happen but after they happened, they& #39;d stay for long enough.
20. I thought gov& #39;ts (esp in US) would try harder to get Rt <<1, rather than have them hover at just slightly below 1.
20. I thought gov& #39;ts (esp in US) would try harder to get Rt <<1, rather than have them hover at just slightly below 1.
Misc:
21. I over-emphasized unilateralist& #39;s curse, "do no harm" etc principles:
21a. I joined EpidemicForecasting later than I should have (because I was worried I& #39;d do harm with bad forecasts)
21b. I& #39;m too reluctant to engage with experts (to avoid wasting their time)
21. I over-emphasized unilateralist& #39;s curse, "do no harm" etc principles:
21a. I joined EpidemicForecasting later than I should have (because I was worried I& #39;d do harm with bad forecasts)
21b. I& #39;m too reluctant to engage with experts (to avoid wasting their time)
22. I had a belief that us nerds are the ones who cared explicit knowledge and statistics, and people "on the ground" will know "what& #39;s actually going on" and rely less on confirmed case statistics and more on seeing the real world and noticing whether their friends/family...
are getting sick or dying. I now think this is mostly wrong, if anything most laymen care more about case statistics and explicit information in the news than forecasters; I& #39;ve grown pessimistic that if there& #39;s bad news+testing etc, ppl will even notice an epidemic happening now
Case forecasts:
23. I thought Japan would be better at containing it early on, and then I thought Japan would have a harder time containing it after some hospitals were overloaded.
24. I thought China would update statistics eventually but assigned very low % it& #39;d happen in April
23. I thought Japan would be better at containing it early on, and then I thought Japan would have a harder time containing it after some hospitals were overloaded.
24. I thought China would update statistics eventually but assigned very low % it& #39;d happen in April
25. I was very bad at predicting things in the Bay Area (essentially I thought there was a lot more cases here than actually were)
26. I was systematically underconfident in my predictions for US overall.
26. I was systematically underconfident in my predictions for US overall.
27. I predicted 10% on this question in mid-April (by which time the S& #39;Pore app Trace Together already had 1.1 million users), and never updated my prediction: https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3915/by-may-1-will-there-be-an-ios-or-android-app-that-shares-an-individuals-covid-19-infection-status-with-more-than-1m-other-users/">https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions...
28. I thought there& #39;d be more recorded deaths in India today than was actually the case.
29. After my terrible China prediction (see #24), I overcorrected and overestimated prob. of data updates happening in other places.
29. After my terrible China prediction (see #24), I overcorrected and overestimated prob. of data updates happening in other places.
30. I assigned only an 8% chance of the final number being >5k here: https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3924/what-will-the-seattle-police-department-report-as-the-total-number-of-criminal-offenses-in-march-2020/">https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions...
Overall, I think I did okay. Excited to keep making mistakes and (hopefully) correcting them more quickly so I can be less wrong in the weeks and months ahead.
