*THREAD*

Lionel Messi replacements;

Technically elite forwards with excellent creative passing and carrying in tight spaces. Can be relied upon to consistently create shots for themselves and others.

Jadon Sancho
Thiago Almada
Francisco Trincão

First, let’s clarify that task we are undertaking here: we’re looking for somebody who is capable of playing as the right-sided forward in Barcelona’s 4-3-3 in the long-term. We aren’t suggesting that these players will be able to match Lionel Messi’s output.

We’re working on the assumption that Barcelona’s long-term attack will likely see Ansu Fati at LW & a Suarez replacement (likely L. Martínez) at ST - so we’re looking to recruit a long-term RW that compliments the skillsets of those.

Our first suggestion is Jadon Sancho, who is our big money option and probably the closest you’re likely to get in terms of replacing Messi’s shot-creation like-for-like. Sancho’s non-penalty xG+xA in the Bundesliga this season is 0.72 p90, an improvement of 0.21 from 18/19.

That firmly positions Jadon Sancho is one of Europe’s truly elite creators and - frighteningly - suggests he is still improving. Since Erling Haaland’s debut, Sancho’s npxG+xA p90 is 0.98 - which is very encouraging given that he'll likely play with an elite FC at Barça.

Here are some of JS’s other key p90 stats in the league this szn compared to Messi:

Non-penalty G+A
Messi 1.33 - Sancho 1.45

Chances created
Messi 2.57 - 2.50 Sancho

Succ. dribbles
Messi 5.43 - 3.55 Sancho

Through balls
Messi 1.14 - 0.41 Sancho

It’s worth noting that Jadon Sancho is right-footed, but has generally played on the right this season. That said, he’s not really a traditional winger - preferring to stay wide, isolate a full-back, win 1v1 and then come inside rather than hitting the byline.

Additionally, Sancho has really kicked on this season in his ability to float across the frontline & really dictate attacks from any position - which supports the argument that he’d be a good Messi replacement. It’s easy to forget he is still developing as a footballer.

Sancho & Messi are the two players across Europe’s top five leagues this season to reach 10+ goals & 10+ assists so far. You’ll never replace Messi like-for-like, but JS is arguably the closest you’re likely to come.

Let’s move on to Thiago Almada, who has recently been linked with a big move away from Vélez Sarsfield. Almada has picked up minutes at LW, CM & RW this season, but we’re specifically looking at him as a right-sided forward.

In order to do this we’ll focus on a recent game he started at RW, an away game against Patronato. Before we do this, here are some p90 stats from 2020 to give you a basic idea of his profile:

3.5 succ.l dribbles
3.0 chances created
2.7 total shots
2.1 fouls won
0.41 xG/A

Let’s talk through his game at RW vs. Patrono. Starting on the right flank in Velez Sarsfield’s 4-2-3-1, operating as the side’s chief creator from that position. He played a pretty withdrawn role: dropping deep and looking to use his sharp passing ability to play through balls.

There were times, though, that Almada looked to drive forward and play a lot closer to goal, creating some excellent chances when he did so.This game showed a really nice variety to his game - highlighting in-particular the fact that he can create from anywhere.

What really stood out was the quality of his decision-making. Despite being just 19, Almads rarely picked the wrong pass. There are times that he releases early on the break and times where he seemingly takes too many touches before picking out a defence-splitting pass.

Despite frequently finding himself in a justifiable position to do so, Almada rarely took a shoot - taking just 2 but assisting 7. His xA of 0.46 for the game is very impressive, but based on the eye-test you’d probably expect it to be a lot higher!

Here are the rest of his numbers from that game:

7 chances created
5 successful take-ons
5 interceptions
3 ball recoveries
3 fouls won
2 tackles won
0.46 xA

It should go without saying, but nobody is suggesting TA could instantly step up to fill Lionel Messi’s shoes at Barcelona. However, he does look an incredibly exciting prospect and somebody that could be developed into the club’s next long-term RW.

Our final suggestion is Francisco Trincão, who Barcelona signed in January. Trincão undoubtedly has all the tools to go on and secure that RW spot at Camp Nou in the long-term. A left-footed right forward, Trincão is the most natural stylistic replacement for Lionel Messi.

Trincão has been directly involved in a Liga NOS goal every 83 minutes and a Europa League goal every 100 minutes. He’s an incredible dribbler and shot-creator who clearly still has a lot to develop. He’s best-positioned to learn from Messi directly too.

However, the key thing to remember here is that Barcelona shouldn’t look to replace Lionel Messi directly. Not only is it extremely unlikely they’ll succeed, but they over-rely on him and should look to become a more cohesive attacking team in his absence.

Trincão is going to be a part of the set up at Barcelona earlier than either of the other options, and so could be the smartest choice in terms of who the club should be focusing their attention on right now.