. @BillKristol @RadioFreeTom @samstein @jheil @davidfrum @gtconway3d From just a basic voter and non political expert, here is my take on things. Trump has a gambling problem along with his other afflictions. 1st, he gambled that by ignoring CV he could get away without /1

losing the economy and markets. He lost that bet. 2nd, he bet that by downplaying the virus, he could keep the damage to the economy from going too deep. He lost that bet. 3rd, he bet that by slow walking testing he could keep the numbers artificially low. He mostly lost /2

that bet. 4th, he bet that by calling himself a wartime president and giving a lot of happy talk, he could gaslight the public into keeping his approval ratings up. He lost that bet. 5th, he is now betting that the warmer weather of summer will bring enough of a slowdown /3

of the virus, he can claim victory and his push to open the economy will be justified. 6th, he is betting that he can fast track any potential vaccine and get it approved before the fall when another wave of the virus is expected. 7th, he is betting that he can smear /4

Biden/Obama enough to distract and sow enough doubt to keep/gain voters in crucial electoral college states. He will do this by a) holding onto the Durham findings until the best possible moment. No matter what Durham finds, Barr will spin it in Trump's favor. b) We will get /5

Rudy's bogus Ukraine findings/documentary at just the right time to do the most damage. c) Keep spreading "Obamagate", Hunter Biden and other conspiracy theories to distract and confuse. I'm sure I missed others. Please feel free to chime in . Whatever the case, the Dems /6

cannot get complacent. Trump is like a caged and wounded animal. He is most dangerous now. I hate the day to day horse race polls. They really mean nothing at this point. It's still a long way to Nov. Listening to polls is how we got into this mess in 2016. /7