A lay-person’s guide to what happens if Trump suspends the November election and why we need Vote-by-Mail and why that’s the most American thing to do. A thread.

Amendment 20 to the Constitution states the President’s term “shall end at noon” on January 20. 1/21

So the constitution, thankfully, is clear that Trump doesn’t get to stay and be king if he suspends elections. But it does not contemplate the possibility of no election happening at all. So who takes over when Trump becomes a private citizen at noon on Jan 20? 2/21

It’s not the Vice President. His term is tethered to the President’s term. It too ends at the same time. 3/21

Most would assume the Presidential Success Act (PSA) kicks in. But this is muddy. The act provides specific scenarios for when it is triggered. No election taking place isn’t one of them...4/21

The PSA states, “if by reason of death, resignation, removal from office, inability, or failure to qualify” the White House is unoccupied the the line of succession kicks in. None of these listed circumstances covers not having an election, except maybe one. 5/21

Some might argue that “failure to qualify” is precisely what happened if no election took place — nobody qualified to be president. However, others would argue that nobody “failed” to qualify— no election took place to allow for the possibility of failure or success...6/21

A court would decide. Absent something in the legislative history suggesting Congress intended for the PSA to apply if there wasn’t an election, it would be a toss up on whether a court would find that the PSA kicks in if the election is suspended...7/21

In the event that the PSA is found to apply, the order of succession is (1) Speaker of the House, (2) President Pro tempor of the Senate, followed by various other roles within the government. HOWEVER, before you get too excited about @SpeakerPelosi becoming President...8/21

Remember that the ENTIRE House of Representatives is up for re-election. If the November election is suspended, there would be no House. There would therefore be no Speaker of the House. We automatically would pivot to the Senate, where it gets interesting...9/21

Side note: the fact that the entire House could be up for re-election arguably suggests that Congress did NOT draft the PSA with the intention of it covering a “no election” year, because it doesn’t make sense to put a position that may not exist in the line of succession. 10/21

But let’s assume a Court finds the PSA kicks in because having a country with no President or functioning Congress is definitely not what the framers of the Constitution contemplated...the PSA is the only tool available to remedy the exigency. Who is the Senate Prsident? 11/21

The Senate President Pro tempor (PPT) is NOT the Senate Majority Leader. The PPT is usually the most senior senator, but is still selected by majority vote. Their job is to preside over the Senate in the absence of the VP, who is constitutionally the Senate President. 12/21

Who would be the PPT turned POTUS if there’s no election and the PSA is found to apply? Luckily the Senate is split into three classes with staggered terms so while there would be no House there would be a Senate. 13/21

Class 2, with 12 Democrats and 21 Republicans, is up for election in November. If it’s suspended, their terms would end and their positions left vacant. It’s a whole nother issue as to whether governors would be permitted to fill the vacancies...14/21

But according to the Senate itself, vacancy appointments are in the event of the senator’s “death, resignation, or expulsion.” https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm 15/21

That would leave 33 Democrats, 32 Republicans, and 2 independents in the Senate if the November election is suspended. That group must elect a PPT, knowing that whoever they elect would be elevated to be POTUS. 16/21

Democrats have a technical majority by a single vote in this scenario (where vacancies aren’t allowed to be appointed). That slim margin gives the two independents enormous power. Those independents are— drumroll please: Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. 17/21

Assuming Bernie votes with the Democratic block and there are no defectors, what Angus votes doesn’t matter. It is possible, perhaps even likely, @SenWarren (who is in Class 1 and remains in office under these circumstances) could become POTUS. 18/21

Of course, this ALL relies on the PSA applying (+vacancies not being filled). If the PSA is found not to apply, there is nothing in the constitution and no federal law (that I’m aware of) that contemplates a scenario where our country simply didn’t have a federal election. 17/21

The Framers never thought or wanted elections to be suspended (they hated tyrants, remember?) so it makes sense they didn’t create a plan for that in the constitution. 19/21

Congress likely never took up the subject either for similar reasons. Even if they had the foresight to imagine that a President would try to suspend elections, to pass a law to address it would be admitting that the President actually does have tyrannical powers. 20/21

So we are left with no fail-safe if the PSA doesn’t apply and an election is suspended. How do we resolve this? Pass national Vote-by-Mail, include a ban on ever suspending elections and in it, fund the @USPS in perpetuity to preserve the republic and prevent tyranny. 21/21

Y’all tweet #4 meant to say “Presidential Succession* Act.” A 21 tweet thread leaves room for lots of typos. Xoxo