So I& #39;m revising some of my COVID thoughts

200k deaths by June isn& #39;t happening. Right now we are stable at around 1500-2000 per day

I now think we are at the end of the first wave. We have bent the curve. I haven& #39;t thought either of those things before but here& #39;s why I do now 1/ https://twitter.com/TheNoahHendrix/status/1257475785381863426">https://twitter.com/TheNoahHe...

Right now daily cases are still rising, but so is testing. I see lots of arguments over the curve but nobody has made a testing-adjusted cases chart. So I did an extremely basic one. Daily cases divided by testing per capita over time

(Thoughts @Noahpinion? Nice name btw)

I see two reasons why the numbers are not rising as much as I expected

1) People are still not going out in large numbers. It’s the virus, not lockdown rules, keeping us inside

2) A lot more people are wearing masks than I expected. Good job people

It& #39;s important to remember that today& #39;s numbers are reflective of our actions 1-2 weeks ago. Just because we haven& #39;t yet seen a spike after limited reopening doesn& #39;t mean we won& #39;t.

If I were in charge of reopening:
-Require masks
-Allow outdoor seating for restaurants and others with social distancing guidelines, but severely limit indoor crowds
-No decisions about the fall (i.e. schools) until mid-summer at earliest