Short thread on why it doesn't seem like FBI was setting up Flynn, and he pleaded guilty to the least-worse charge in a deal that was going to result in NO jail time. 1/x

If the FBI was intent on setting up Flynn, Strzok made a major blunder in an interview with FBI agents in July 2017 (four months before Flynn pleaded guilty). He admitted he didn't think Flynn was lying at the time or that Flynn himself thought he was lying. This is important

There are two key components of the 1001 charge -- lying to federal agent -- materiality and willfulness. That means the lie has to be important and the defendant has to know he is lying.

This document would have to be turned over to Flynn's lawyers before any trial. It would totally undercut any prosecution. "Agent Strzok, did you think Mr. Flynn was lying? We have an interview in which you didn't think he was lying." "No, I didn't actually." Oops.

That would have been something to keep under wraps if your intention had been to SET UP and frame Flynn.

Also Flynn knew that Strzok didn't think he had lied and that the agent sent crazy text messages before Flynn pleaded! (see attached pleading by govt)

The govt told him about all of it. He could have said: No, I'll take my chances at trial, you bozos. Why didn't he? Because it was a sweatheart deal that avoided jail time, expensive trial on more serious charges!

Flynn was going to be needed to testify in that trial of his biz partner at minimum. Mueller also may have needed him as a witness to alleged Russian interference.

But he would have been a problematic witness bc in the files the biz partner would have gotten and any potential defendants in Russia invest would be notes that Flynn lied to VP and agents.

This would be a defense lawyer's dream: "Gen. Flynn, did you lie to the FBI and VP? How can we trust you now?"

prosecutors would need to inoculate Flynn & case against accusations their witness is a big LIAR. So they have him plead to 1001. They would bring it up on DIRECT.

Flynn would say: Yeah, I lied. I accepted responsibility. I am telling truth now.

Prosecutors do this ALL THE TIME to preempt defense character attacks

To Flynn it seemd like the smart play -- NO jail time recommended by DOJ for his extensive cooperation. Mutually beneficial deal. Flynn avoids prison and expense of fighting a trial. Govt gets a witness who knows stuff.

But there was no way DOJ was every likely to prosecute the 1001 charge at a trial. Can you imagine how long Strzok would be on witness stand and grilled by defense about his text messages? It would have been a mess!

The agents also didn't conduct a great interview. DOJ lawyers' flabbergasted that agents didn't warn Flynn about dangers of lying and asked too many open-ended questions. Not clean yes/no. It was a cluster (indication that counterintel agents are not great criminal investigators)

Just because prosecutors can't make a case at trial doesn't mean a defendant can't plead guilty to the charge. And Flynn took deal and pleaded guilty and seemed contrite when he admitted lying to two judges and in issuing a public statement.

That is one major reason it doesn't seem like the FBI was setting him up....Also this great story by @adamgoldmanNYT about what Priestep really was thinking: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/us/politics/bill-priestap-michael-flynn.html

None of of this is to take away from how @SidneyPowell1 has lawyered the case. She framed this as an injustice and has successfully exploited a messy investigation that AG Barr and acting US Atty. Tim Shea argue was so flawed it should be dropped.

It also doesn't mean the FBI didn't botch the interview, that McCabe (who called Flynn to set up the Jan 2017 interview ) has little credibility bc he was found to have lied to internal investigators about directing his subordinates to deal with media.

People do plead guilty when they are actually innocent. Not diminishing that travesty of justice.