Thread by @SoumayaKeynes, Hello! I wrote a thing about that tiny topic that is the [...]

Soumaya Keynes

SoumayaKeynes

Hello! I wrote a thing about that tiny topic that is the future of world trade...

featuring @kevinhorourke, @kdziczek, @jacob___parker, Mike Jette of @GEP_Worldwide, Pierre Sauvé of @WorldBank, Bernard Hoekman of @EuropeanUni and @BaldwinRE https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/05/14/covid-19s-blow-to-world-trade-is-a-heavy-one

Covid-19’s blow to world trade is a heavy one

And pre-existing conditions seem to worsen the prognosis

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/05/14/covid-19s-blow-to-world-trade-is-a-heavy-one

At one point due to an internal miscommunication I thought this chart might not make it in. Due to the [REDACTED] I spent on stata constructing it I nearly cried. But then it made it in and I was happy.

Some things I picked up along the way...

Companies want to be wherever they can best tap into demand for their products. Which means the pull of EMs/China is strong

h/t McKinsey Global Institute / Susan Lund

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Innovation/Globalization%20in%20transition%20The%20future%20of%20trade%20and%20value%20chains/MGI-Globalization%20in%20transition-The-future-of-trade-and-value-chains-Full-report.ashx

This VoxEU book on covid-19 and trade edited by @BaldwinRE and @SimonEvenett is FASCINATING. I particularly enjoyed the chapter on resilience vs robustness in global value chains by @smiroudot

For a good read on deglobalisation in the grand scheme of things, I enjoyed this, written by Harold James @Princeton in 2017 for @CIGIonline

https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/documents/Paper%20no.135WEB_1.pdf

@D_A_Irwin on deglobalisation definitely worth a read...

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/globalization-retreat-first-time-second-world-war

If you don't already follow @Birdyword then either you need to start doing so or you're an idiot.

Here he is being sceptical that globalisation is on death's door

https://www.wsj.com/articles/globalized-commerce-might-prove-resilient-to-the-pandemic-11587549813

This report on global value chains by folks from the @WTO, @OECDTrade @WorldBank @uibechina and @ide_jetro...

I mean PHWOAR those charts

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gvc_dev_report_2019_e.pdf

On episodes of deglobalisation from history, this from @kevinhorourke is v interesting. It's also the background for his advice to Davos man to "take it on the chin"

https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/4993/167decemberorourke.pdf

And finally, the @WorldBank World Development Report from 2019 has SO. MANY. GREAT. CHARTS. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32437

You can follow @SoumayaKeynes.

Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: