There was one entry in today's FinMin presentation I found very interesting. It basically shows how the entire thing is being marketed. A few tweets follow.
The Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme for Middle Income Group will be extended to March 31, 2021.
This will lead to Investment of over Rs. 70,000 Crores in housing, the FinMin presentation points out.
What is this scheme? It is basically an interest subvention scheme on home loans of a certain size, where the govt bears a part of the interest burden. Given that the govt is bearing a part of the interest burden, people are incentivised to buy homes.
FinMin estimates that 2.5 lakhs middle income families will benefit during 2020-21.
This basically means that 2.5 lakh families will take on interest subvention home loans under this scheme in the current financial year. This will unleash an investment of Rs 70,000 crore.
The scheme was operationalised in May 2017. Since then 3.3 lakh middle class families have benefitted from this scheme, the FinMin points out.
Over a period of three years 3.3 lakh families have taken on interest subvention home loans under this scheme.
Hence, 1.1 lakh families per year on an average have benefitted over a period of three years.
Nevertheless, this year 2.5 lakh families are expected to take a home loan under this scheme.
This in an environment where jobs, salaries, occupations and incomes, are on the line.
In the past three years, when there was no economic crisis, 3.3 lakh homes were bought using the scheme. This year when the country is facing its most severe economic crisis, the number is 2.5 lakhs. I am all for Being Positive, but Being Delusional isn't my cup of tea.
So, these 2.5 lakh households are expected to take on home loans under this scheme and spend a total of Rs 70,000 crore buying homes.
This works out to an average of Rs 28 lakh per home.
A bulk of this Rs 28 lakh is expected to be spent by households (except for the interest subvention which the govt will pay banks for just this year).
The household spending has been added up as an investment of Rs 70,000 crore into the sector.
Given that the scheme has been on for three years, I am wondering why didn't the govt claim that they had been preparing for this situation all along for the past three years and helping the real estate sector and creating "LIQUIDITY" for it.
People are expected to take on a loan. People are expected to make a downpayment. How is this different from how homes get bought any which way?
How is this a Rs 70,000 crore package? The package is at best limited to the interest subvention amount on these loans. In 2019-20, this amounted to Rs 400 crore.
Interestingly, in 2020-21, the govt has budgeted Rs 500 crore for this scheme.
The larger point here is that the government is basically broke and there isn't much that it can do. Of course, there is no way it is going to admit to the same. No government would.
One more point. Given that the govt had already made an allocation for this scheme in the budget, how is this new?
I don't follow the FinMin in detail, possibly the FinMin reporters can explain this.
The allocation can be seen here: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/doc/eb/stat7.pdf
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