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Don't get distracted.
Novel coronavirus sure isn't.
It's aiming to thrive, to win. It figured out how to reach the globe through a ubiquitous large-in-number mammal species that is good at exploring every inch of Earth and which sometimes has ventured out into space. 1/
Novel coronavirus sure isn't.
It's aiming to thrive, to win. It figured out how to reach the globe through a ubiquitous large-in-number mammal species that is good at exploring every inch of Earth and which sometimes has ventured out into space. 1/
It's invisible to that species. It used to be in other animals, ones that are not meant to be in direct contact with this large species, but coronavirus has just reported a breakout growth statement in its 10-K filing. Hottest growth stock. 2/
As a member of target species, (troll or bot you say, quibbles) I urge all to focus. I was made aware through a "note on pandemics" by nntaleb, yaneerbaryam, and normonics (I'm not "att-ing" them here though I often do as a shoutout and out of gratitude.) 3/
And this thread is a proto-catalog of distractions I have noticed on twitter-verse (I've pretty much dispensed with TV/radio media.) I may be adding to the catalog here below this thread if I have the discipline. Hopefully not - that would mean we aren't distracted anymore. 4/
Distraction #1: Cure can't be worse than the disease. We've got to reopen asap. Reopening blind just means giving corona more ways to infect. President of Ghana stated "We know how to bring an economy back to life. we don't know is how to bring a person back to life. 5/
Distraction #2: Endless lockdown vs. total reopen. This is a false choice. Lockdown is ONE of four basic steps to 'phasing in precaution.' [Identify systemic threat -> clamp down -> detect/classify -> relax ] (See normonics) I add "repeat if necessary." 6/
#2 continued. Because this hasn't been communicated as a strategy, people have gone along with a lockdown but expected us to WIN, and now we haven't prepared at all for next step. See @JeremyKonyndyk thread today May 14 2020 on the 2 months we haven't done anything. 7/
Distraction #3: Focusing on perfect data for decisionmaking. A recurring @nntaleb point - you need to decide without having perfect knowledge. You don't wait until the house burns down to put out the grease fire in the kitchen. @HarryDCrane is clear on this too. 8/
Distraction #4: Misinformation. "Just like the flu" (refutation by Burn-Murdoch excess deaths FT); it's an urban problem (US rural spikes), Summer's here (Ecuador/Brazil), it's mild and we've got this for a while (this week's info from France, Spain, and Indiana), ETC. 9/
Distraction #5: Very subtle: People focusing on doing the very best in a bunch of areas but NOT communicating the NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT conditions to beat the virus. I'm not going to call out people here, they're doing good, but also maybe creating a false hope. 10/
#5 con'td: The false hope is that there is no guarantee that if we do all that, we will have done enough. The question that has to be answered by a strategy is: Do the strategy (and set of actions) allow achieving a victory if executed?
Distraction #6: Politics. It is an election season. The election is in November. It's May. It's FIGHT CORONA time, not anything else. Anyone whose actions distract us from FIGHTING CORONA isn't helping. Forget the politics, there is a season for everything.
Distraction #7: "The Experts Moved the GoalPosts." Well, depends on which experts. The ones that saw this coming early and warned, aren't. There has been a lack of communicating WHAT IS NECESSARY TO WIN and what the strategy needs to be, so many are surprised. 13/
Shout-out on all of this: http://endcoronavirus.org @yaneerbaryam. No distractions. Clear information, no BS.
We can do this. And if we collectively don't, I know what to do for my family and place. But I want America to win too.
I'll add to this in replies. #nodistractions
We can do this. And if we collectively don't, I know what to do for my family and place. But I want America to win too.
I'll add to this in replies. #nodistractions
