Today, #WTO DG #Azevedo will announce his early resignation. Here is a thread on what that the selection process might mean for the WTO and his successor.

https://www.ft.com/content/3cc4df3d-8329-4de8-8f14-ce063d0cd9b8 (1/9)

The first big question about Azvedo's resignation is why now? His could have stayed until autumn 2021. That's also for when MC12 is now scheduled. Maybe he wanted to allow his successor to have a bearing on the conference's outcome rather than participate in it as a lame duck? 2

But there are dangers associated with his early resignation. Typically member states take a few months to make nominations, then the candidates campaign for 2-3 months and then the General Council determines the successor through a mix of voting and negotiation... (3/9)

until a consensus candidate is found, which for Azevedo's first nomination took 1-2 months. Thus, the time decision time on the new DG will roughly coincide with the US elections in November. Which begs the question, why Azevedo allows the current US admin... (4/9)

the possibility to interfere with the nomination of his successor. Maybe a few months later, the politics of the WTO would be much different, given the possibility of new US admin friendlier to the institution. (5/9)

Now Trump will likely be tempted to nominate someone from his camp, and exert pressure on other member states to support his candidate. Maybe even threaten to leave the organisation if his candidate is not chosen. This could damage the institution. (6/9)

Therefore, I believe it likely that the other member states won't be in a hurry to find a successor. Current Deputy DGs can act in the interim. But the later a successor to Azevedo is appointed, the less time he/she has to prepare MC12. (7/9)

The EU and maybe China might be tempted to suggest candidates to show leadership and committment to multilateralism. Similary, smaller nations might also nominate candidates which appear more independent than those from large trading nations. (8/9)

This could also be a chance for the WTO. The campaigning of candidates could be a chance to win a mandate for different visions of WTO reform and revitalisation of multilaterilsm - while the rebuilding of the global trading system after CoVid19 takes place (9/9).