NEW/EXC: The Dept of Trade want so cut agri tariffs to kick on trade talks with US and has drawn up "big concession package". Defra and NFU not happy - my latest for @ft with @SebastianEPayne 1/thread https://www.ft.com/content/e583b8a2-4074-4fa9-9c43-08a9979e0bee

What does that mean? Well for one a good 'ol Whitehall row as @trussliz and George Eustice vie for the ideological soul of #Brexit.

Talks with US just started; no texts as yet, but I understand aim is to start negotiations on text by June...UK will need to get ball rolling./2

Because as @SamuelMarcLowe tells us, a “big offer” from UK on agriculture would be necessary to make any trade deal acceptable to the Trump administration and US Congress. /3

The fear among farmers and animal health lobbies is that if you grant market access by offering preferential tarrifs...its the thin end of the wedge. Falling animal welfare standards will, incrementally follow, as EU legislation gets reviewed domestically. Bit by bit. /4

Both George Eustice and @michaelgove have record of saying this wont be allowed to happen and @SebastianEPayne hears that Gove is back Eustice. The DiT plan await sign off by Cabinet Cmme - I hear from one corner that No 10 is back DiT at this point. We'll have to see./5

The trouble is that, if you get too rational, you quite quickly get into a 'what's the point' scenario - given that the govts own best case is that a US_UK deal delivers a 0.16 per cent boost to UK economy over next 15 yrs /6

https://www.ft.com/content/3aef20b0-5c8f-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98

That's miniscule compared to the costs (negative 4%-8%?) of larding all the coming frictions on EU-UK trade by doing a barebones FTA or no deal at all.

So is 0.16% worth doing screwing over UK farmers and attracting the political wrath that comes with animal welfare? /7

But the govt has hitched its banner to the 'buccaneering Britain' narrative and it needs something to show for it - beyond rolling over existing deal, or making incremental improvements with Japan, South Korea or South Africa /8

The other element is the politics that would flow from the UK trying to ride both the EU and US regulatory horses on agri-products.

The UK is currently seeking an NZ-style vet agreement with EU; and super-low friction arrangements for goods going GB-NI under Irish Protocol. /9

Now. It's not impossible for EU to do such deals even IF the UK is letting in US chlorine-washed chicken etc, but as we've seen with current EU approach to trade talks (cold on NZ vet deal, withholding MRAs on med devices) not at all clear EU moves to assist UK in this! /10

That last was a piece of understatement, in case that got lost on Twitter.

Is going to be fascinating to see how this one plays out. Watch this space. ENDS