If Germany would become a classical great power, it would clash with France, there would be no more EU in a meaningful sense. Germany‘s post-modernity the prerequisite for the existence of the EU, a unique configuration of states, not an intl organization and not a federal state. https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/1260733815506468865

This configuration was perfectly suited for a transatlantic world, it struggles to adapt to a world organized around great power competition—as its original purpose has been to leave great power competition forever behind, shape a new world of win-win cooperation and integration.

According to great power logic, the EU must either disintegrate or become a state-like power. Yet neither is likely to happen. Instead the EU is muddling through, hoping that globalization and liberal international order can somehow be saved — the environment that it needs.

Why is the EU not a state-building project? Because Europe has a long history of state building — states have strong identities and are eager to defend sovereignty. Integration pressure from EU and from great power logic strong but sense of identity in states far stronger.

If pushed to heavily into a union in which they feel deeply uneasy, European nation states will clash with one another, some will look for the exit.

Yet on the other side, the example of Brexit once more shows the benefits of EU membership to many EU capitals. They are much better off in this union as if they would be without—especially in a colder, more competitive world.

Most important for the future of this sui generis union is a renewal of the transatlantic partnership. A powerful liberal-minded US has (almost) always helped the EU navigate global and regional challenges. A Biden presidency would provide the opportunity for such a renewal.