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Deebo Samuel Thread There has been a lot of hype around many of the sophomore WRs so I wanted to take a deeper look at a few to see if these are guys we should sell high on or if they are going to continue moving up dynasty boards over the course of the following years.
Deeboâs analytic profile and tape are good. It highlights what you want in a fantasy prospect.
BOA of 20
Solid 40 time and HaSS
Early DC
Great return skills
Add on his physicality and skills with the ball in his hand and you had a recipe for success.
BOA of 20
Solid 40 time and HaSS
Early DC
Great return skills
Add on his physicality and skills with the ball in his hand and you had a recipe for success.
His rookie year started slow despite decent playing time. He exploded as the WR9 from Week 9 to 17.
This is a list of some WRs he outscored in that timeframe:
Julio Jones
Kenny Golladay
Deandre Hopkins
Tyreek Hill
Chris Godwin
Amari Cooper
And the list goes on.
This is a list of some WRs he outscored in that timeframe:
Julio Jones
Kenny Golladay
Deandre Hopkins
Tyreek Hill
Chris Godwin
Amari Cooper
And the list goes on.
@TheBauerClub wrote an article for FantasyPros that highlighted rookies who ran more than 250 routes and had a Yard Per Route Run. He found that 11 of 12 rookies who hit 2.0 YPRR finished with at least on T12 WR season in this career. Deebo was at 2.3 YPRR last year.
Itâs not all 
and 
tho.
The WRs that had those T12 seasons are:
*JJSS
*Kupp
*Godwin
*T. Hill
MT
OBJ
Evans
K. Allen
Baldwin
AJG
Julio
But only 4 of them (the *) did it as 2nd fiddles in terms of target share. JJSS, Kupp, and Godwin were all on Os that had over 620 PA.
and tho. The WRs that had those T12 seasons are:
*JJSS
*Kupp
*Godwin
*T. Hill
MT
OBJ
Evans
K. Allen
Baldwin
AJG
Julio
But only 4 of them (the *) did it as 2nd fiddles in terms of target share. JJSS, Kupp, and Godwin were all on Os that had over 620 PA.
THill did it on a comparable PA volume that Deebo can expect in SF. So there is some hope but itâs not something Iâm counting on. THill is an extreme outlier and his speed is on a whole different planet than Deebo. While itâs possible to replicate that, itâs not likely in my mind
My issue besides PA volume on the 9ers is Deeboâs target share. This chart shows Kyle Shanahanâs target shares split by primary, secondary, and tertiary target.
I broke it down to TS% for the games they played that season. Notice the trend for 2nd fiddle options.
I broke it down to TS% for the games they played that season. Notice the trend for 2nd fiddle options.
Then the final piece of the puzzle is the 49ers moving up for Aiyuk. Iâm not a fan of Aiyuk but the 9ers wanted him enough to move up in the 1st. Kittle will remain the clear cut #1 guy. Now Deebo has real competition for that second spot. Where volume seems capped around 18% TS.
While Deebo possess a lot of great qualities my worry about TS% & his volume have capped where I think I can take him at this point. He was one of the oldest rookie WRs last year and Iâm not sure just how much growth he has left. I think he can be a solid WR2 but not much more.
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