Covid-19

Some and comparisons between countries.

Here are the number of deaths in the main European countries, in total and per million of population

There are many factors which impact the relative experience of different countries, including:
- age (Western Europe are all quite similar, median ages around 40 to 45)
- timing and extent of seeding of virus
- population density and mobility

Here are some density comparisons

It is noticeable that the countries with higher densities, particularly where this is in large cities, have had more deaths.

However you look at it, Belgium has been hit hard and Germany has fared very well so far.

Europe vs Asia

Asian countries have had far fewer deaths per capita than Western European ones. Some thoughts

a. Asian countries are generally better prepared, having faced prior epidemics. Most new deadly viruses seem to emerge in Asia. So they...

.. are attuned to masks, social distancing, hand sanitising, catch it bin it etc. Many shops had thermometers to measure customer’s temperatures installed even before CV19.

b. Weather. Generally much warmer meaning more outdoor living. Many eat at tables in the streets and ...

...many restaurants are open on one or more sides.

Wuhan was very cold in January and had a bad experience.

You might say , “but what about Iran? It’s hot and they had a bad experience.”

In Iran a....

..very high proportion of the population regularly attends Mosque, where they are indoors and often shoulder to shoulder. They were slow to stop this, hence a high initial seeding of the virus.

c. Many Asian countries have much younger populations than Europe

It may be that countries which have been hit hard will have built up some immunity. If so those that have had a light experience so far, like Germany, may be more at risk of future peaks and a need for much longer periods of social distancing.

Ends.