Once in a while, I get to talk about my own back yard. Indiana just conducted the first statewide random sample study to determine the true prevalence of COVID-19. The results may surprise you.

Too Many States Are Flying Blind Into Reopening. Not Indiana. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/indiana-reopening-coronavirus-testing.html

First of all - THIS IS WHAT GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE DOING!

Good on the @GovHolcomb. Good on @StateHealthIN. Good on spending the money and mobilizing the resources to do this not once, but again and again in the next few months.

THIS IS GOOD.

Now to results!

How many are currently infected? 1.7%

How many more have antibodies? 1.1%

Total prevalence in Indiana? 2.8%

Anyone hoping that great numbers of Americans have been infected, but with no symptoms or very mild illness is going to be disappointed.

On the other hand, social distancing worked. The hospitals, while strained at times, were never overwhelmed. The state was able to keep the rate of infection much lower than others.

This means, however, that Indiana is currently missing 10 out of every 11 cases. We're not testing enough.

More calculations possible with a denominator. The infection fatality rate is 0.58%

This is worse than the flu.

What percent were totally asymptomatic? About 45%

Three lessons.

1. States that haven’t seen their health care systems crushed have been spared because they have been relatively free of disease. New York likely saw far more people exposed and infected than the rest of the country.

2. Much of the country still needs to be very careful. They need to continue to manage this pandemic well. Indiana is not out of the woods; it has barely entered, even while the state has begun easing restrictions.

3. State governments may need to do the heavy lifting. Thus far, the federal response has been sorely lacking. Too many states are flying blind, moving ahead without understanding their risk. There’s no magic to this. All states could do it if they just committed to it.

Again, they will repeat all of this in early June. More data to come.

Go read. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/indiana-reopening-coronavirus-testing.html