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Well done to @GeorgeLeeRTE for doing a detailed piece comparing Ireland 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇪" title="Flag of Ireland" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Ireland"> and Sweden https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇪" title="Flag of Sweden" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Sweden">.
Important that we have this debate.
A few comments on the piece and my own views on Sweden below.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⤵️" title="Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards" aria-label="Emoji: Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards">
1/ https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/">https://www.rte.ie/news/coro...
Important that we have this debate.
A few comments on the piece and my own views on Sweden below.
1/ https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/">https://www.rte.ie/news/coro...
This chart illustrates how Sweden has had a worse outbreak than Ireland when measured by ICU.
The point is made that Ireland& #39;s ICU capacity could not have coped with a Swedish level outbreak.
But is that true?
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The point is made that Ireland& #39;s ICU capacity could not have coped with a Swedish level outbreak.
But is that true?
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It& #39;s important to remember that Sweden *has* coped with its ICU admissions, despite the larger outbreak and despite a *lower* ICU capacity to begin with.
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To cope, Sweden nearly doubled its ICU capacity from 526 beds to 1,013.
Ireland has also surged its capacity.
I wouldn& #39;t go as far to conclude we could not have coped.
4/ https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavirus-covid-19/socialstyrelsens-roll-och-uppdrag/">https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavir...
Ireland has also surged its capacity.
I wouldn& #39;t go as far to conclude we could not have coped.
4/ https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavirus-covid-19/socialstyrelsens-roll-och-uppdrag/">https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavir...
Later, the point is made that Ireland probably needs another 200 ICU beds to cope with Sweden& #39;s current number of ICU patients.
200 sounds like a lot, but we have close to that number available in ICU right now.
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200 sounds like a lot, but we have close to that number available in ICU right now.
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I haven& #39;t seen numbers for ICU capacity in a while, but just looking at an old set of figures...
If 142 (COVID patients) is now just 72, then the difference (70) can be added to the 109 vacant beds.
That& #39;s gives 179 vacant beds.
Not far from 200.
6/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246757728648867840">https://twitter.com/higginsda...
If 142 (COVID patients) is now just 72, then the difference (70) can be added to the 109 vacant beds.
That& #39;s gives 179 vacant beds.
Not far from 200.
6/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246757728648867840">https://twitter.com/higginsda...
Clearly 179 is below 200, and more patients is a challenge for the health system, but it& #39;s not a disaster.
We now have 2,400+ ventilators (assuming the April delivery mentioned here came through).
7/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246744919106097152">https://twitter.com/higginsda...
We now have 2,400+ ventilators (assuming the April delivery mentioned here came through).
7/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246744919106097152">https://twitter.com/higginsda...
The Swedish claim that they will have an advantage over other countries in future waves of the virus, if true, will *save* them "sickness, anguish, fear and grief" in the long run.
We don& #39;t know yet if it is a "horrible term" or the right strategy.
Only time will tell.
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We don& #39;t know yet if it is a "horrible term" or the right strategy.
Only time will tell.
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Sweden is compared here to Ireland as having a high level of activity. Lots of people moving about it seems.
However, Google mobility data is problematic because of the base used for the % declines.
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However, Google mobility data is problematic because of the base used for the % declines.
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The base matters, because if you have a low level of activity to begin with, then there won& #39;t be a big decline.
This is likely to be the case in Sweden because the base covers most of January, when it is very cold there.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥶" title="Cold face" aria-label="Emoji: Cold face">
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This is likely to be the case in Sweden because the base covers most of January, when it is very cold there.
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10/" title="The base matters, because if you have a low level of activity to begin with, then there won& #39;t be a big decline.This is likely to be the case in Sweden because the base covers most of January, when it is very cold there. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥶" title="Cold face" aria-label="Emoji: Cold face">10/" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Average temperatures in January
- Stockholmhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇪" title="Flag of Sweden" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Sweden"> = -1.6 °C
- Dublinhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇪" title="Flag of Ireland" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Ireland"> = +5.3 °C
So it& #39;s no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.
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- Stockholm
- Dublin
So it& #39;s no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.
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= -1.6 °C- Dublin https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇪" title="Flag of Ireland" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Ireland"> = +5.3 °CSo it& #39;s no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.11/" title="Average temperatures in January- Stockholm https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇪" title="Flag of Sweden" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Sweden"> = -1.6 °C- Dublin https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇪" title="Flag of Ireland" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Ireland"> = +5.3 °CSo it& #39;s no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.11/">
= -1.6 °C- Dublin https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇪" title="Flag of Ireland" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Ireland"> = +5.3 °CSo it& #39;s no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.11/" title="Average temperatures in January- Stockholm https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇪" title="Flag of Sweden" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Sweden"> = -1.6 °C- Dublin https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇪" title="Flag of Ireland" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Ireland"> = +5.3 °CSo it& #39;s no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.11/">
A better comparison to Sweden is neighbouring Denmark, where a full lockdown took place.
Trips to retail and recreation dropped by the same percentage, despite very different policies in place.
Ireland is lower, but it could be from a higher base.
January sales?https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛍️" title="Shopping bags" aria-label="Emoji: Shopping bags">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛒" title="Shopping cart" aria-label="Emoji: Shopping cart">
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Trips to retail and recreation dropped by the same percentage, despite very different policies in place.
Ireland is lower, but it could be from a higher base.
January sales?
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛒" title="Shopping cart" aria-label="Emoji: Shopping cart">12/" title="A better comparison to Sweden is neighbouring Denmark, where a full lockdown took place. Trips to retail and recreation dropped by the same percentage, despite very different policies in place.Ireland is lower, but it could be from a higher base.January sales? https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛍️" title="Shopping bags" aria-label="Emoji: Shopping bags">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛒" title="Shopping cart" aria-label="Emoji: Shopping cart">12/" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Sweden *is* in lockdown, albeit a voluntary one.
Data from @moovit, covering all public transport movements captures this the best.
Ireland is lower, yes, but not by substantial amount.
Denmark is similar to Sweden.
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Data from @moovit, covering all public transport movements captures this the best.
Ireland is lower, yes, but not by substantial amount.
Denmark is similar to Sweden.
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Again I thank @GeorgeLeeRTE for his piece and I hope I& #39;ve added some useful counter-points.
We cannot shy away from having "the Sweden debate" just to avoid the perception of wanting a higher number of total deaths (which no one wants).
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We cannot shy away from having "the Sweden debate" just to avoid the perception of wanting a higher number of total deaths (which no one wants).
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And to clarify my own position, I support Ireland& #39;s decision to enter lockdown on March 28th.
Mortality in Italy was 11% when we did.
We acted on the information we had at the time.
This debate is about the future policy we take to combat the virus.
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Mortality in Italy was 11% when we did.
We acted on the information we had at the time.
This debate is about the future policy we take to combat the virus.
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I fear that the compliance with lockdown measures will decay over time.
Sweden& #39;s approach is based on the understanding that you *cannot* keep people locked inside for long.
The principle is to treat people like adults and to trust them.
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Sweden& #39;s approach is based on the understanding that you *cannot* keep people locked inside for long.
The principle is to treat people like adults and to trust them.
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Some of Sweden& #39;s policies, like allowing gatherings up to 50 people, should *not* be applied to Ireland.
Others, such as keeping schools open, so parents can continue working, absolutely should!
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END https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1260636108003688448">https://twitter.com/higginsda...
Others, such as keeping schools open, so parents can continue working, absolutely should!
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END https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1260636108003688448">https://twitter.com/higginsda...
