Well done to @GeorgeLeeRTE for doing a detailed piece comparing Ireland and Sweden .

Important that we have this debate.

A few comments on the piece and my own views on Sweden below.



1/ https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/

This chart illustrates how Sweden has had a worse outbreak than Ireland when measured by ICU.

The point is made that Ireland's ICU capacity could not have coped with a Swedish level outbreak.

But is that true?

2/

It's important to remember that Sweden *has* coped with its ICU admissions, despite the larger outbreak and despite a *lower* ICU capacity to begin with.

3/

To cope, Sweden nearly doubled its ICU capacity from 526 beds to 1,013.

Ireland has also surged its capacity.

I wouldn't go as far to conclude we could not have coped.

4/ https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavirus-covid-19/socialstyrelsens-roll-och-uppdrag/

Later, the point is made that Ireland probably needs another 200 ICU beds to cope with Sweden's current number of ICU patients.

200 sounds like a lot, but we have close to that number available in ICU right now.

5/

I haven't seen numbers for ICU capacity in a while, but just looking at an old set of figures...

If 142 (COVID patients) is now just 72, then the difference (70) can be added to the 109 vacant beds.

That's gives 179 vacant beds.

Not far from 200.

6/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246757728648867840

Clearly 179 is below 200, and more patients is a challenge for the health system, but it's not a disaster.

We now have 2,400+ ventilators (assuming the April delivery mentioned here came through).

7/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246744919106097152

The Swedish claim that they will have an advantage over other countries in future waves of the virus, if true, will *save* them "sickness, anguish, fear and grief" in the long run.

We don't know yet if it is a "horrible term" or the right strategy.

Only time will tell.

8/

Sweden is compared here to Ireland as having a high level of activity. Lots of people moving about it seems.

However, Google mobility data is problematic because of the base used for the % declines.

9/

The base matters, because if you have a low level of activity to begin with, then there won't be a big decline.

This is likely to be the case in Sweden because the base covers most of January, when it is very cold there.

10/

Average temperatures in January
- Stockholm = -1.6 °C
- Dublin = +5.3 °C

So it's no surprise that trips to parks are up "a massive 44%" in Sweden.

11/

A better comparison to Sweden is neighbouring Denmark, where a full lockdown took place.

Trips to retail and recreation dropped by the same percentage, despite very different policies in place.

Ireland is lower, but it could be from a higher base.

January sales?

12/

Sweden *is* in lockdown, albeit a voluntary one.

Data from @moovit, covering all public transport movements captures this the best.

Ireland is lower, yes, but not by substantial amount.

Denmark is similar to Sweden.

13/

Again I thank @GeorgeLeeRTE for his piece and I hope I've added some useful counter-points.

We cannot shy away from having "the Sweden debate" just to avoid the perception of wanting a higher number of total deaths (which no one wants).

14/

And to clarify my own position, I support Ireland's decision to enter lockdown on March 28th.

Mortality in Italy was 11% when we did.

We acted on the information we had at the time.

This debate is about the future policy we take to combat the virus.

15/

I fear that the compliance with lockdown measures will decay over time.

Sweden's approach is based on the understanding that you *cannot* keep people locked inside for long.

The principle is to treat people like adults and to trust them.

16/

Some of Sweden's policies, like allowing gatherings up to 50 people, should *not* be applied to Ireland.

Others, such as keeping schools open, so parents can continue working, absolutely should!

17/17

END https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1260636108003688448