Bowser and other officials said a primary metric was a 14-day decline in the number of reported positive COVID-19 cases. And since the city reports new cases every day, anyone could look at daily counts and see increases and decreases as they happen. But...
City officials clarified today they're not simply looking at those raw positives that are reported every day. Instead, they are looking for "community spread." They get that first off by looking at when someone developed symptoms, not just when they tested positive.
And, more importantly, they're excluding cases in congregate settings, like nursing homes, the D.C. Jail, etc., since those are generally people not circulating in the broader community.
"We take the rate of decline for people moving around the community versus people who are in confined spaces," said Dr. LaQuandra Nesbitt, director of D.C. Health, on a call with the D.C. Council just now.
And: "If we did it from the raw number [of cases] we report every day… we would be days behind when we notice a decline because there is a lag from when you get sick and when you get your lab results," said Nesbitt.
In short, if you're waiting for the daily case counts that are published to see if there are declines (like we in the media have), that's not the be-all, end-all metric city officials are using to decide when to loosen restrictions and reopen D.C.
In a sense (and this is not wholly unexpected), they've got access to more granular data of when people are developing symptoms and whether they are out in the community or not to help drive the decision on when reopening will be possible.
This, of course, was a bit of news to reporters today, and to members of the Council, who asked city officials about it.
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