Some good points here but also a lot of straw men.

Contra these claims, I have not seen many credible public health folks:
- Treating the IHME model as gospel (many have been highly critical)
- Predicting "mass death in GA by May" (source on this claim?)
- Ignoring uncertainty https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1260618652753317888">https://twitter.com/JDVance1/...

Prominent public health voices *have* been saying that:
- Reopening without protections is a big risk
- Many people won& #39;t resume normal economic activity until they feel it& #39;s safe, regardless of govt orders
- Every model has limits
- Most crucial: Build capacity to reopen SAFELY.

As for GA and FL, I do think their govts are risking a new surge. But this is also blunted somewhat, as Vance notes, by the fact that citizens remain risk-averse in their own daily choices.

That will slow spread but will also prolong economic pain.

Risk in premature reopening isn& #39;t just an explosion in cases; it& #39;s also that latent fear undermines the desired econ recovery.

Far better to reopen in a way that instills confidence - through an aggressive program of test/trace/isolate and investments in hospital readiness.

And *that* is what the public health community is nearly universally calling for. The states that get that right will endure less pain - both health and economic - in the long run.

Final thought. I& #39;m seeing a lot of comments on this website along the lines of "the experts said X but they were wrong, boooo experts." Most of these comments caricature what experts are actually saying. Disappointing to see that same dynamic at play in this thread.