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(1) Could #COVID19 mutant #D614G the variation seen in Transmission Rates (Rt's) and Case Fatality Rates (CFR's) between locations?
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2
#BreakingNews #coronavirus
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2
#BreakingNews #coronavirus
(2) A group of researchers prepublished their findings about the #D614G mutation to the SARS-Cov-2 affecting the properties of the Spike protein that binds to host cell sites.
(3) The paper includes a diagram showing the emergence of the #D614G mutant and its descendants, first in Belgium, and later in hot spots in Europe and the United States.
The relative quantities of the this mutant strain could explain the variations seen in Case Fatality Rates!
The relative quantities of the this mutant strain could explain the variations seen in Case Fatality Rates!
(4) The full preprint report is available online.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2.full.pdf
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2.full.pdf
(5) The evidence is clear that G614 and its descendants have become the dominant strain, but data from Sheffield suggests that the G614 strain is also leading to more fatalities, with 20 of their 23 ICU patients suffering from the mutant strain.
(6) In Europe, the paper suggests that Germany doesn't have a magic formula, they were simply lucky to have most of their early infections come from the milder strain.
Similarly, the researchers suggest that Washington and California were lucky; New York was not.
Similarly, the researchers suggest that Washington and California were lucky; New York was not.
(7) The paper also provides results for Asia, Australia and Africa, telling a similar story.
(8) This could be a big piece of the puzzle regarding variations in outcomes between locations.
I first suspected this on April 22nd. https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1253033931227660288
I first suspected this on April 22nd. https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1253033931227660288
(9) @LosAlamosNatLab developed this visualization to understand the relative abundance of the two key #COVID19 mutant strains.
https://cov.lanl.gov/apps/covid-19/map/
https://cov.lanl.gov/apps/covid-19/map/
(10) Here is a similar map for my friends in Europe.
(11) The less virulent #COVID19 strain struck first on both continents.
(12) On April 8th (left) the D614 West Coast strain was dominant in the United States. By April 29th, the G614 New England Strain had become the dominant by spreading faster.
(13) I found a better sequence of frames showing the emergence of G614 in the research report.
