1/7 I& #39;ve been sucked into a few heated Twitter debates about whether stay-at-home policies are still necessary. I& #39;m a layperson and so are 99% of the people I& #39;m engaging with, so keep that in mind. But the thing everybody forgets about COVID-19
2/7 is the significance of asymptomatic transmission. This is what makes COVID-19 disanalogous to seasonal flu or even SARS. We know who can transmit flu virus: sick people. So if you& #39;re sick, you stay home. We don& #39;t "shut the economy down" over flu
3/7 because we have the critical information we need to do targeted isolation. We don& #39;t have that with COVID-19 because determining who can transmit it requires a test, and we haven& #39;t stood up a robust enough testing program to meet the need.
4/7 I keep hearing "X number of people die every year from flu and we don& #39;t shut the economy down over that, so why do it over this?" Asymptomatic transmission is why. Think of it this way: You& #39;re hosting a birthday party with a bunch of kids. It& #39;s cake time,
5/7 and kids are about to run in from the backyard when you notice a dog turd on the lawn with a footprint in it. In the absence of a shoe-inspection regime, your only choice for keeping poop off of your carpet is to have all the kids take their shoes off before they go inside.
6/7 People are worried that we& #39;ll be forced to stay at home until the disease is eradicated or we develop a vaccine. That& #39;s not true. We just need to hold on until there& #39;s a good testing program and a bit more knowledge about antibodies and immunity, which could be soon.
7/7 You don& #39;t have to get rid of your dog, put him in a diaper, or never host another birthday party. You just have to know which kid stepped in the turd.