A longish thread on the NBA’s situation in China amid recent developments, CCTV’s role in this, and whether it can be resolved.

First, some context. https://twitter.com/jmawhite/status/1260489562343854085

The heartwarming tale about David Stern waiting for hours in a wintry CCTV reception several decades ago in an ultimately successful bid to get the league broadcast in China is well worn, and the NBA-CCTV axis remained strong for many years afterwards.

The perception that Yao Ming was solely responsible for the NBA's success in China is wrong – he certainly took the league's popularity to new heights, but it was already popular before and, crucially, remained popular when he retired.

But around 2015, the sports broadcast landscape in China changed. Tencent started to pay serious money for online rights for the NBA, LeSports – remember them? – sparked a 20x rise in the value of Chinese Super League rights, and so on.

Leading the industry switch, many NBA fans – especially that highly desirable younger demographic – moved to Tencent, while CCTV, who still carried NBA on television, was caught with its proverbial pants down.

As an aside, CCTV has always moved far too slowly, no doubt a result of being a state-run behemoth. Olympic and World Cup rights are mandated to remain with CCTV, but during those years when the rest of the world went digital, CCTV’s online platforms were basically unwatchable.

It’s awash with cash and should have been setting the industry trends in China, not lagging behind by several years. But I digress...

That's the background, though. So when the Morey situation came around, CCTV - still pissed that NBA fans were now watching online via Tencent - had the perfect opportunity for payback.

There’s an argument that CCTV went rogue over the Morey tweet, escalating the situation beyond all reason, and leading the charge. CCTV scrapped all NBA games from its schedule in a nationalist fit of pique, leaving Tencent no choice but to follow suit – a double win for CCTV.

I get it – HK is a "third rail" issue – but the feeling was that CCTV overplayed its hand. Compare, for example, the later Mezut Ozil tweet about Xinjiang and subsequent reaction. It was objectively a worse offence in China’s eyes than Morey's retweet (and neither apologized).

But the EPL didn’t get scrapped from the Chinese broadcast schedule. Even Arsenal games continued, as commentators just referred to “#10” or pretended Ozil wasn’t on the pitch. Sure, NBA > EPL, but Ozil > Morey, so it's roughly comparable.

But now it seems CCTV is doubling down. The comments made last week were designed to head off speculation that the NBA would return to CCTV, with officials there certain to have heard the reports that Michael Ma was about to be appointed.

The implication is that Ma's hiring - the first Chinese mainland boss of NBA China, well connected and son of the founder of CCTV Sports - wouldn't immediately smooth things over.

I wouldn't place too much stock in a Global Times story that says the Morey situation needs to be "handled" (i.e. fire Morey). It cites a single commentator, whose quotes are generally positive about the new hiring, but CCTV would no doubt agree with that particular sentiment.

I liked this line in @jmawhite’s piece (see above for link):
"We have learned a few things in our lockdown timeout: basketball can make headlines even without playing, time does not heal all wounds and China always wins."

But China hasn't won here. Despite a backlash back home, the NBA held firm last October and they will do so again. For US fans who think the NBA already surrendered, ask yourself why CCTV is still mad seven months later.

Unless Morey shoots himself in the other foot over something unrelated, there is simply no way the NBA will fire him. Silver has made that abundantly clear. Morey is 47, so I don't see him "retiring", either. A sideways move is *possible*, but it would be a massive risk.

The NBA has taken the pain - an early estimate was that Morey cost the league $400 million in lost sponsorship deals - and COVID-19 is compounding that pain, but China revenue is still a very distant second to the US.

Best case scenario in the short term is that NBA games, including Rockets ones, return to a full schedule on Tencent soon after the league restart. CCTV has backed itself into a corner, so don't expect games to return there anytime soon.

Tencent pays $1.5 billion to the NBA (over five years) so it will be exceedingly keen to get its prized asset back up and running. But others - like CCTV - will lobby against that for reasons listed above.

Then the question is - can the Ma family work its magic with CCTV further down the line? You have to think they have a shot, but if this issue continues to be the poster child for fraying US-China relations, all bets are off.

The US election is not coming at a good time for the NBA, given the bubbling anti-China rhetoric. That could raise this issue way above CCTV levels. Then again, perhaps Trump ties this into a Phase Two deal (stranger things have happened) - in which case China *does* win! /END