Amid the “will cities survive #COVID19?” narrative, there has been talk that people were already leaving center cities. It’s not true! In fact, downtown population energy is real and likely to outlast the pandemic. THREAD https://www.brookings.edu/research/big-city-downtowns-are-booming-but-can-their-momentum-outlast-the-coronavirus/

Inspired by @emilymbadger tweet, @larafishbane and I tracked downtown pop growth since 1980 across 100 metro areas. After a midcentury decline, the biggest metro’s downtowns roared back in 1990s and 2000s. So while central county pop slowed, downtowns often did much better

The challenge is the demand for urban living is spiky, as usual. Pacific Time Zone is generally doing well, and the larger Midwest metros roared back. Really steady growth in NE. But smaller metros in MW and South had problems

Take Milwaukee, a market with sluggish central county growth. But there is now a population rebound percolating at its very core. This is a great sign for regions with great central assets and dealing with “sprawl with no growth.” Peers: Cleveland, KC, St. Louis

Similar are the truly ‘hot’ markets like Nashville, who also saw a downtown rebound to now match their suburban growth. Question is can they build infrastructure and public space to keep it moving and affordable? Peers: Charlotte, Tampa, Austin

Then you also have the big metros, like Seattle, that are doing exactly what we thought. All those cranes are leading to a population boom. But who benefits and who gets squeezed? Peers: Chicago, Miami, Denver

Nor is it all rosy. Tulsa with it’s famous $10k moving benefit? They could use more people. It’s also worrisome for bigger cities like San Antonio struggling to get people downtown.

Summary? 2-3 decades of downtown pop growth leaves more residential units, civic space, and other amenities to keep attracting people. Not only can these places manage a pandemic, their density benefits are eternal.

You can see all the downtowns yourself—so let us know what you think. We also provided data and can even share shapefiles if folks want. /END https://www.brookings.edu/research/big-city-downtowns-are-booming-but-can-their-momentum-outlast-the-coronavirus/