Read on Twitter
In March I wrote about what #covid19 means for the business of news
Details will vary but overall picture is becoming clearer and it is grim
Rough estimate? Total global newspaper revenues may decline ~$24b in 2020 - as much as they did from 2013 to 2019 https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/risj-review/what-will-coronavirus-pandemic-mean-business-news
Details will vary but overall picture is becoming clearer and it is grim
Rough estimate? Total global newspaper revenues may decline ~$24b in 2020 - as much as they did from 2013 to 2019 https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/risj-review/what-will-coronavirus-pandemic-mean-business-news
Crude assumptions to get sense of overall picture.
Print circulation revenue -10%
Print ad revs -30%
Digital circ revs +20%
Digital ad revs -20%
Working from @NewspaperWorld figures, that would mean global decline of ~$24 billion
That's = decline from 2013 to 2019. In one year
Print circulation revenue -10%
Print ad revs -30%
Digital circ revs +20%
Digital ad revs -20%
Working from @NewspaperWorld figures, that would mean global decline of ~$24 billion
That's = decline from 2013 to 2019. In one year
As said this is crude & will vary from country to country and from news media to news media. Assumption about continued growth in digital circ based on WAN-IFRA past data
(Mind you,assumptions above are more optimistic than what @EndersAnalysis forecasts for the UK specifically)
(Mind you,assumptions above are more optimistic than what @EndersAnalysis forecasts for the UK specifically)
Provided pandemic is under control+economies rebound, some will come back
But based on previous experience of people moving to digital+impact of 2007/2008 recession on advertisers' spend,a crude estimate is about half of print loss may return
That would be a $11b permanent loss
But based on previous experience of people moving to digital+impact of 2007/2008 recession on advertisers' spend,a crude estimate is about half of print loss may return
That would be a $11b permanent loss
Governments, foundations, philanthrophists can help cover some of this if they choose to
But it is wishful thinking they will cover all of it
So I think we need to focus on 1) how we can do amazing journalism w/fewer resources (collaboration etc) and 2) how to grow digital biz
But it is wishful thinking they will cover all of it
So I think we need to focus on 1) how we can do amazing journalism w/fewer resources (collaboration etc) and 2) how to grow digital biz
If these crude assumptions turn out to be broadly right, there'll be no going back to "normal", only a decision about whether news media settle for accelerated structural decline of legacy business or focus on what their editorial mission+commercial model looks like in the future
