THREAD: Are #mafia organisations profiting from the #coronavirus? Here some thoughts on the often confusing discussion that has taken place in the last few weeks.

Mafias operate in both licit and illicit markets. As the legal market has been impacted by the lock-down, the illegal market has been affected as well. Adaptation is possible (to a certain extent), but this takes time. 1/

To which extent the negative impact of Corona on mafias' business is offset by other "new" profits - such as the illicit trade in PPE - is a misleading debate. It forgets to address the specificity of #mafia organisations as governing entities and not mere trading operators. 2/

In contrast to other forms of organised crime, #mafia organisations aim at governing. While they might be involved in a variety of legal and illegal activities, their ultimate source of power and strength is control over territory (see @federico_varese for details). 3/

The real opportunity that has emerged from this crisis is not a business opportunity, but the opportunity for #mafia organisations to strengthen their control over territory, mainly through support to (1) businesses and (2) people in financial difficulties. 4/

Small and medium business are in significant financial difficulty as a consequence of the Corona lock-down. Mafias can offer liquidity in the form of credits. The key risk here is not loansharking. Often - at least initially - normal or low interest rates apply. 5/

The aim of liquidity injection by mafias into business in financial disarray is not primarily economic profit, but to (1) gradually take control of the business (for example, to launder money), and (2) create a situation of dependence that will have to be repaid. 6/

Offering help - food supplies, credits, jobs, etc. - to people in need allows #mafia organisations to gain social consensus and legitimacy in the short term. In the longer term, help will be cashed back in different forms, the most worrying one being political support (votes). 7/

While the movement restrictions are gradually being relaxed (and business - both legal and illegal - will slowly get back to normal), the economic and social consequences are here to stay in the long term. If not properly addressed, they will leave space for mafias to fill. 8/

To which extent #mafia organisations will, in the long term, profit from the #coronavirus depends ultimately on the state's capacity - and willingness - to address its social and economic consequences with adequate measures. 9/

Caveat: mafias' capacity to profit from the crisis also varies from group to group (e.g. cash availability might be different and limited). State's capacity is also impacted by how hard the virus has hit the country in question. 10/