1/10) Reports that HMT wants to end State Pension Triple Lock. In law, Basic State Pension & New State Pension must rise at least with earnings. CPI & 2.5% components are discretionary. https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1260482136123023361

2/10) So if earnings growth is negative this year (likely when many employees furloughed on 80% pay), HMG could freeze pensions in April 2021 without changing primary legislation.

3/10) If wages rebound, eg as furloughed staff return, average earnings component of Triple Lock could deliver big pension rise in April 2022. TL sees pensions cushioned from any big fall in wages but benefit from rebound. Law would have to change to stop earnings-based increases

4/10) On OBR scenario (not HMT’s), average wages fall 7.3% in 2020 then rise 18.3% in 2021. (They seem to be assuming higher productivity amongst those who keep jobs, so 2021 GDP is in line with pre-lockdown forecast but with fewer workers producing it.)

5/10) If that happened in relevant 12-month periods as well as calendar years, Triple Locked Pensions would rise by 21.3% over a 2-year period when average earnings of employees rose 9.7% (exaggerated by composition effect if more low paid lose jobs?) and more people out of work!

6/10) While some things in the HMT doc might be standard ready reckoner material, or non-runners designed to make other options look more palatable (NHS pay freeze…), ending Triple Lock does seem to be on the table. Chancellor sidestepped a Q on this from @elliotttimes on 14/04.

7/10) I think the £8bn saving in the article is for 2023/4 but need more information to be sure what HMT’s alternative policy is – eg what earnings/ inflation they’re assuming, how they assume excess mortality cuts the number of State Pension recipients vs earlier forecasts.

8/10) Subject to the desired long-term level of State Pension, a sensible uprating policy might be: pensions rise at least by inflation each year & are never lower than they would have been if increased with earnings from a given date.

9/10) Politicians could even make that “at least inflation & at least £X” if they couldn’t see themselves repeating anything like Brown’s 75p rise when inflation & earnings growth are very low.

10/10) Nothing explicit about pensions tax in Tel. report, but that might be one of the so-called "reforms” that need time to develop. Realistically, it’s in the firing line. On the bright side, scrapping manifesto “tax lock” could reduce how much they target from that source.