We analysed recent State #budgets of 17 states to understand their fiscal position prior to the #COVIDー19 crisis. The paper includes revenue estimations, expenditures & policy changes such as Ways & Means Advances & GST. Do read and share. Comments welcome. https://twitter.com/accinitiative/status/1260445045330792448

A few key findings.
From FY 2017-18 to FY 2019-20 REs, per-capita revenue receipts registered an increasing trend. BEs for FY 2020-21 anticipated a further rise. These, however, are likely to be significantly lower in the REs of FY 2020-21 due to the impact of COVID-19. (1/10)

On average, only around 50% of revenue receipts are from Own Source Resources. For some States, the proportions are significantly lower at 22% (Bihar) & 13% (Mizoram). OSR has also been declining over the years
~ increasing fiscal dependence on the Union government. (2/10)

The actual taxes devolved to states have remained
consistently lower than those projected by the 14th FC. Part of the reason for this decline is the lower than expected GST revenue collections and greater imposition of cesses which remain outside the divisible pool. (3/10)

Share of Grants-in Aid-out of total State revenue receipts has been decreasing post-14th FC. The decrease in share between 17-18 and 18-19 highest for fiscally weaker States which could be due to failure to meet conditionalities of fund release and low exp capacity. (4/10)

While the overall quantum of funds through Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSSs) has declined for many States, they still constitute a significant portion of States' revenues. 2019-20 REs were Rs. 15000 crore less than BEs for CSSs. (5/10)

GST compensation disbursements from the Union to the States have witnessed a shortfall. These are likely to see further downward pressure and non-timeliness of payments due to fall in GST collections and States' own revenue generation growth. (6/10)

RBI announced a rise of 60% in the drawing limit of Ways and Means Advances (WMA) for State governments – raising the limit to approximately ₹51,560 crore. However, the raised limit continues to fall short of the State borrowing requirement. (7/10)

Revenue exp 70-80% of total expenditure. A substantial part is on committed liabilities (salaries, pensions & interest payments) that need to be paid despite resource constraints. On avg in last 3 yrs, States spend 35% of their revenue receipts on committed expenditures. (8/10)

Social Sector Exp has mostly kept pace with GSDP and increased marginally. In FY 2014-15, prior to the 14th FC
recommendations, the ratio was 7.03% This
increased to 7.09% in FY 2018-19. The recent 2
years had anticipated slowdown. (9/10)

Public expenditure on health and family welfare as
a % of the GSDP has remained <2% for most States. Surprisingly, in a few States expenditure on health as a proportion of GSDP was projected lower in FY 2020-21 BE compared to previous year's REs. (10/10)