Current global order was setup to fight the Cold War. Patrolling the oceans & having military bases was never about any economic benefit for the US, it was about a security benefit. US has a continental economy - it has one of the lowest imports/exports as % of GDP.

Now that the soviets are gone, it no longer benefits the US except to keep the energy supply chain going. And guess what, even that is becoming irrelevant. North America is already energy independent thanks to shale reserves and fracking technology.

As fracking technology improves, North America will become an exporter of energy. As lithium ion batteries improve, South America will also become a big energy player. Essentially, the Americas will no longer require to import any energy from the old world.

At the same time, there is a big domestic political re-orientation happening in the US - the first time since the Great Depression. The US will become more socialist and adopt European style healthcare and maybe even a universal basic income over the next 20 years.

Trump may very well be, the least isolationist & most globalist president in the next 20 years! As the US re-orients politically, it will try to withdraw into itself by cutting down on its global security footprint that isn't serving their interests anymore & fund social welfare.

This is why you see Trump demanding that EU, Japan, Korea have to "pay their fair share" for the security blanket being provided by the US.

What does this mean for current US allies and global energy supply? Let's take a look at the current routes & choke points.

As the Americas withdraw themselves from the Old World, the Indian Ocean is set to become the most important route and choke point for global energy supply chains.

The Europe market will be a dogfight between Russia & Arabs. Asian market will be supplied via the Indian ocean.

Should the US withdraw, China currently has a naval advantage over the US Asian allies (Japan, Korea, Australia). But the Asian allies have a better missile coverage over the Indian Ocean compared to China. Whoever controls Indian Ocean will control a key portion of world order.

This is why the US is keen on roping in India into its sphere of influence. If India joins Japan, Korea, and Australia, its pretty much curtains for China even if the US withdraws. China's energy routes will not be in its control. It has to play ball not on their terms.

If I was the US, this would be the deal I would strike with Modi in exchange for capital investment as supply chains diversify out of China in the post-corona world.

Can't say specifically but I would guess that Modi struck Indian Ocean deal with US. https://twitter.com/533mmTorpedo/status/1260234523108876288

In exchange for that, he got assurances of certain industrial supply chains moving from China into India as part of the post-corona reorientation.

This is probably the backing Modi sought from the US and its allies before the #AatmanirbharBharat announcement made today.